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Serie A

Referee: Federico La Penna

Fiorentina

S T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Cremonese

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Cremonese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 18%

29%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

59%

35%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,06 xG 0,73

65% Possession 35%

22 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 20. · Cremonese 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	17	11	5	1	+15	+8.3	38
2	Napoli	17	12	1	4	+13	+9.2	37
3	Inter	16	12	0	4	+21	+14.3	36
4	Juventus	18	9	6	3	+8	+12.6	33
5	Roma	18	11	0	7	+8	-0.1	33
6	Como	17	8	6	3	+11	+6.8	30
7	Bologna	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.7	26
8	Atalanta	18	6	7	5	+2	+7.7	25
9	Lazio	18	6	6	6	+4	-5.8	24
10	Sassuolo	18	6	5	7	+1	-5.8	23
11	Udinese	18	6	4	8	-11	-6.1	22
12	Cremonese	17	5	6	6	-2	-8.9	21
13	Torino	17	5	5	7	-11	-3.2	20
14	Cagliari	18	4	6	8	-6	-11.2	18
15	Parma	17	4	6	7	-7	-4.2	18
16	Lecce	17	4	5	8	-11	-9.3	17
17	Genoa	18	3	6	9	-10	+0.8	15
18	Verona	16	2	6	8	-12	-3.2	12
19	Pisa	18	1	9	8	-12	-6.1	12
20	Fiorentina	17	1	6	10	-11	+1.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	9	6	2	1	+7	+5.9	20
2	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
3	Juventus	9	5	4	0	+7	+9.8	19
4	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
5	Como	8	5	3	0	+9	+5.1	18
6	Roma	9	6	0	3	+6	+2.6	18
7	Atalanta	10	4	4	2	+3	+7.8	16
8	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+6	+0.7	15
9	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
10	Udinese	9	3	3	3	-4	+1.1	12
11	Sassuolo	9	3	2	4	+0	-3.4	11
12	Torino	9	3	2	4	-6	-3.3	11
13	Cremonese	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.6	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
15	Parma	9	2	3	4	-4	-2.9	9
16	Lecce	9	2	3	4	-5	-1.5	9
17	Genoa	10	1	4	5	-7	+0.8	7
18	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
19	Pisa	9	1	3	5	-6	-2.3	6
20	Fiorentina	8	1	2	5	-2	+3.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	8	5	3	0	+8	+2.4	18
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+5	+4.5	18
3	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+5	+7.6	18
4	Roma	9	5	0	4	+2	-2.7	15
5	Juventus	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.8	14
6	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
7	Como	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
8	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	-2.4	12
9	Cremonese	9	3	3	3	+0	-7.3	12
10	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-7	-7.2	10
11	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
12	Lazio	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.5	9
13	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-6.6	9
14	Parma	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
15	Torino	8	2	3	3	-5	+0.2	9
16	Genoa	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.0	8
17	Lecce	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.8	8
18	Pisa	9	0	6	3	-6	-3.8	6
19	Verona	9	1	3	5	-11	-4.2	6
20	Fiorentina	9	0	4	5	-9	-1.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.