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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Chelsea

U T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 56%

47%

65%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

59%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,14 xG 1,19

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 8

7 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 7

16 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Aston Villa 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	13	3	2	+22	+21.5	42
2	Man City	18	13	1	4	+26	+15.2	40
3	Aston Villa	17	11	3	3	+9	-4.6	36
4	Liverpool	18	10	2	6	+4	+6.8	32
5	Chelsea	17	8	5	4	+12	+5.5	29
6	Man United	18	8	5	5	+4	+8.7	29
7	Sunderland	17	7	6	4	+2	-7.8	27
8	Brentford	18	8	2	8	+2	+2.8	26
9	Crystal Palace	17	7	5	5	+2	+6.8	26
10	Fulham	18	8	2	8	-1	-3.1	26
11	Everton	18	7	4	7	-2	-5.2	25
12	Brighton	18	6	6	6	+1	+2.1	24
13	Newcastle	18	6	5	7	+0	+4.8	23
14	Tottenham	17	6	4	7	+3	-6.6	22
15	Bournemouth	18	5	7	6	-6	+0.3	22
16	Leeds	17	5	4	8	-7	+0.2	19
17	Nott'm Forest	18	5	3	10	-10	-4.9	18
18	West Ham	18	3	4	11	-17	-11.9	13
19	Burnley	18	3	3	12	-15	-19.1	12
20	Wolves	18	0	2	16	-29	-11.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	8	1	0	+18	+13.4	25
2	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
3	Aston Villa	9	7	1	1	+8	-1.2	22
4	Brentford	9	6	2	1	+10	+4.6	20
5	Liverpool	9	6	1	2	+5	+4.8	19
6	Sunderland	8	5	3	0	+8	-0.9	18
7	Man United	9	5	2	2	+5	+9.4	17
8	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
9	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
10	Fulham	9	5	1	3	+5	+1.0	16
11	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
12	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+5	+7.3	15
13	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
14	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.3	14
15	Crystal Palace	8	2	4	2	-1	+6.6	10
16	Nott'm Forest	9	3	1	5	-3	+2.0	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	9	2	2	5	-3	-6.8	8
19	West Ham	9	2	0	7	-11	-4.5	6
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-16	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+4	+8.1	17
2	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+3.7	16
3	Crystal Palace	9	5	1	3	+3	+0.2	16
4	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
5	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+3	-6.2	14
6	Aston Villa	8	4	2	2	+1	-3.4	14
7	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
8	Man United	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.7	12
9	Everton	9	3	2	4	-3	-4.9	11
10	Fulham	9	3	1	5	-6	-4.1	10
11	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
12	Brighton	9	2	2	5	-4	-0.8	8
13	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-7	-6.9	8
14	West Ham	9	1	4	4	-6	-7.4	7
15	Newcastle	9	1	3	5	-4	-1.2	6
16	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
17	Bournemouth	9	1	3	5	-11	-6.1	6
18	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-12	-12.3	4
19	Leeds	8	1	1	6	-12	-7.1	4
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-13	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.