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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Pacos Ferreira

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Belenenses

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

26%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

44%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

41%

37%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

24 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 17. · Belenenses 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	29	22	4	3	+42	70
2	Benfica	28	20	5	3	+39	65
3	Sp Braga	28	15	4	9	+14	49
4	Sp Lisbon	27	15	4	8	+14	49
5	Famalicao	27	13	7	7	+4	46
6	Rio Ave	27	12	8	7	+10	44
7	Guimaraes	27	10	10	7	+15	40
8	Santa Clara	29	9	10	10	-6	37
9	Moreirense	28	8	11	9	+2	35
10	Gil Vicente	29	8	10	11	-7	34
11	Boavista	27	8	8	11	-5	32
12	Maritimo	29	6	12	11	-10	30
13	Setubal	26	6	12	8	-10	30
14	Vitoria Setubal	26	6	12	8	-10	30
15	Tondela	28	7	9	12	-11	30
16	Belenenses	27	8	6	13	-18	30
17	Pacos Ferreira	27	7	4	16	-17	25
18	Portimonense	29	3	14	12	-17	23
19	Aves	28	4	2	22	-29	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	1	1	+25	37
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+22	32
3	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+8	27
4	Sp Lisbon	13	9	0	4	+8	27
5	Famalicao	14	8	3	3	+6	27
6	Moreirense	14	6	4	4	+4	22
7	Guimaraes	13	6	3	4	+10	21
8	Rio Ave	14	5	5	4	+4	20
9	Maritimo	15	4	7	4	+1	19
10	Gil Vicente	14	4	7	3	+0	19
11	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	-5	19
12	Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
13	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-11	15
15	Portimonense	14	2	8	4	-3	14
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	2	8	-5	14
17	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-3	13
18	Tondela	14	2	5	7	-9	11
19	Aves	14	3	1	10	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	10	3	2	+17	33
2	Benfica	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Rio Ave	13	7	3	3	+6	24
4	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
5	Sp Braga	14	7	1	6	+6	22
6	Guimaraes	14	4	7	3	+5	19
7	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Tondela	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	Boavista	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Santa Clara	14	4	6	4	-1	18
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-7	15
12	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-7	15
13	Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
15	Moreirense	14	2	7	5	-2	13
16	Maritimo	14	2	5	7	-11	11
17	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	2	8	-12	11
18	Portimonense	15	1	6	8	-14	9
19	Aves	14	1	1	12	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.