Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Erzgebirge Aue
Bochum
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bielefeld
|
31 | 16 | 13 | 2 | +31 | 61 |
| 2 |
Hamburg
|
32 | 14 | 12 | 6 | +21 | 54 |
| 3 |
Stuttgart
|
31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | +13 | 52 |
| 4 |
Heidenheim
|
32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | +11 | 52 |
| 5 |
Darmstadt
|
31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | +2 | 46 |
| 6 |
Greuther Furth
|
32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |
Bochum
|
31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 42 |
| 8 |
Hannover
|
31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | +0 | 42 |
| 9 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 |
Sandhausen
|
31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | -1 | 40 |
| 11 |
Holstein Kiel
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 |
Regensburg
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -6 | 39 |
| 13 |
St Pauli
|
31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | -3 | 38 |
| 14 |
Osnabruck
|
32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 15 |
Nurnberg
|
32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -7 | 36 |
| 16 |
Karlsruhe
|
31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 33 |
| 17 |
Wehen
|
32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -20 | 31 |
| 18 |
Dresden
|
31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | -25 | 28 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
St Pauli
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
Karlsruhe
Heidenheim
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
Darmstadt
Nurnberg
Erzgebirge Aue
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.