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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Belenenses

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,7

4,2

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

23%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

38%

62%

Both score Ø 43%

31%

54%

Average goals

2,3

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Belenenses 11. · Pacos Ferreira 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+21	36
2	Porto	13	10	3	0	+26	33
3	Benfica	14	10	3	1	+23	33
4	Sp Braga	13	9	1	3	+13	28
5	Maritimo	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Rio Ave	14	7	2	5	+5	23
7	Guimaraes	13	6	2	5	-5	20
8	Chaves	14	5	3	6	-3	18
9	Boavista	14	5	2	7	-3	17
10	Portimonense	14	4	4	6	-2	16
11	Belenenses	13	5	1	7	-4	16
12	Tondela	14	4	3	7	-4	15
13	Aves	14	3	4	7	-8	13
14	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	3	7	-12	12
15	Feirense	13	3	2	8	-7	11
16	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	4	7	-10	10
17	Moreirense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
18	Estoril	14	2	2	10	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Porto	7	6	1	0	+20	19
3	Sp Braga	7	6	0	1	+13	18
4	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+9	17
5	Maritimo	7	5	2	0	+6	17
6	Portimonense	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Belenenses	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
9	Boavista	7	4	0	3	-2	12
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	2	1	+2	11
11	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-4	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	3	2	+2	9
13	Chaves	6	2	2	2	+2	8
14	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Feirense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Aves	8	1	2	5	-8	5
17	Moreirense	6	0	4	2	-4	4
18	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Benfica	7	3	3	1	+4	12
4	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Chaves	8	3	1	4	-5	10
8	Aves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Tondela	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-1	5
12	Feirense	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Moreirense	8	1	1	6	-10	4
14	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-14	4
15	Portimonense	7	0	3	4	-7	3
16	Belenenses	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Vitoria Setubal	6	0	1	5	-12	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.