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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Aves

T U T T T

0–2

Full-time

Belenenses

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

16%

28%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

56%

36%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

36%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 19. · Belenenses 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	27	21	3	3	+41	66
2	Benfica	27	20	4	3	+39	64
3	Sp Braga	27	15	4	8	+15	49
4	Sp Lisbon	26	14	4	8	+13	46
5	Famalicao	26	12	7	7	+2	43
6	Rio Ave	25	11	8	6	+10	41
7	Guimaraes	26	10	9	7	+15	39
8	Gil Vicente	27	8	10	9	-4	34
9	Santa Clara	26	9	7	10	-6	34
10	Moreirense	26	7	11	8	+2	32
11	Boavista	25	7	8	10	-5	29
12	Setubal	25	6	11	8	-10	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	25	6	11	8	-10	29
14	Maritimo	27	5	12	10	-10	27
15	Tondela	27	6	9	12	-13	27
16	Belenenses	25	7	5	13	-20	26
17	Pacos Ferreira	25	6	4	15	-17	22
18	Portimonense	27	3	12	12	-17	21
19	Aves	25	4	1	20	-25	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	1	1	+24	34
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+22	32
3	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Famalicao	14	8	3	3	+6	27
5	Sp Lisbon	12	8	0	4	+7	24
6	Moreirense	13	6	4	3	+5	22
7	Guimaraes	13	6	3	4	+10	21
8	Rio Ave	13	5	5	3	+5	20
9	Gil Vicente	13	4	7	2	+2	19
10	Santa Clara	14	5	3	6	-5	18
11	Maritimo	14	3	7	4	+0	16
12	Setubal	12	3	6	3	-4	15
13	Vitoria Setubal	12	3	6	3	-4	15
14	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Belenenses	13	4	2	7	-11	14
16	Boavista	12	3	4	5	-2	13
17	Portimonense	13	2	7	4	-3	13
18	Aves	12	3	0	9	-8	9
19	Tondela	13	1	5	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	10	2	2	+17	32
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+17	32
3	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
4	Sp Braga	14	7	1	6	+6	22
5	Rio Ave	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Tondela	14	5	4	5	-2	19
7	Guimaraes	13	4	6	3	+5	18
8	Santa Clara	12	4	4	4	-1	16
9	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-3	16
10	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	-4	16
11	Gil Vicente	14	4	3	7	-6	15
12	Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
13	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
14	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Maritimo	13	2	5	6	-10	11
16	Moreirense	13	1	7	5	-3	10
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	2	7	-12	8
18	Portimonense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
19	Aves	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.