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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Sp Lisbon

U S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 41%

54%

27%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

54%

46%

Both score Ø 52%

62%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

6 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

24 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Pacos Ferreira 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	28	22	3	3	+42	69
2	Benfica	28	20	5	3	+39	65
3	Sp Braga	27	15	4	8	+15	49
4	Sp Lisbon	26	14	4	8	+13	46
5	Famalicao	27	13	7	7	+4	46
6	Rio Ave	27	12	8	7	+10	44
7	Guimaraes	27	10	10	7	+15	40
8	Santa Clara	28	9	9	10	-6	36
9	Moreirense	28	8	11	9	+2	35
10	Gil Vicente	28	8	10	10	-6	34
11	Setubal	26	6	12	8	-10	30
12	Vitoria Setubal	26	6	12	8	-10	30
13	Tondela	28	7	9	12	-11	30
14	Belenenses	27	8	6	13	-18	30
15	Boavista	26	7	8	11	-6	29
16	Maritimo	28	5	12	11	-11	27
17	Pacos Ferreira	26	7	4	15	-16	25
18	Portimonense	28	3	13	12	-17	22
19	Aves	27	4	1	22	-29	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	1	1	+25	37
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+22	32
3	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Famalicao	14	8	3	3	+6	27
5	Sp Lisbon	12	8	0	4	+7	24
6	Moreirense	14	6	4	4	+4	22
7	Guimaraes	13	6	3	4	+10	21
8	Rio Ave	14	5	5	4	+4	20
9	Gil Vicente	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Santa Clara	14	5	3	6	-5	18
11	Maritimo	14	3	7	4	+0	16
12	Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
13	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	7	3	-4	16
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-11	15
15	Portimonense	14	2	8	4	-3	14
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	2	8	-5	14
17	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-3	13
18	Tondela	14	2	5	7	-9	11
19	Aves	13	3	0	10	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	10	3	1	+17	33
2	Porto	14	10	2	2	+17	32
3	Rio Ave	13	7	3	3	+6	24
4	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
5	Sp Braga	14	7	1	6	+6	22
6	Guimaraes	14	4	7	3	+5	19
7	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Tondela	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	Santa Clara	14	4	6	4	-1	18
10	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-3	16
11	Gil Vicente	14	4	3	7	-6	15
12	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-7	15
13	Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-6	14
15	Moreirense	14	2	7	5	-2	13
16	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	Maritimo	14	2	5	7	-11	11
18	Portimonense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
19	Aves	14	1	1	12	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.