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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Telstar

T U U S S

2–3

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Telstar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,5

Scored

1,7

3,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 31%

18%

44%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 67%

59%

75%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,77 xG 1,74

35% Possession 65%

7 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

5 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Telstar 15. · Ajax 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	18	16	1	1	+35	+16.4	49
2	Feyenoord	18	11	3	4	+21	+20.3	36
3	Nijmegen	17	8	5	4	+14	+5.6	29
4	Groningen	17	8	4	5	+5	+10.0	28
5	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	4	5	+4	+13.6	28
6	Ajax	16	7	6	3	+8	+0.4	27
7	Twente	18	6	8	4	+5	+18.3	26
8	Heerenveen	17	6	5	6	+3	+12.5	23
9	Sparta Rotterdam	17	7	2	8	-13	-4.9	23
10	Utrecht	16	6	4	6	+5	-2.9	22
11	For Sittard	17	6	3	8	-4	-7.2	21
12	Zwolle	18	5	5	8	-17	-16.1	20
13	Go Ahead Eagles	17	4	7	6	-3	-10.4	19
14	Excelsior	17	6	1	10	-15	-12.3	19
15	Telstar	17	3	6	8	-7	-7.6	15
16	NAC Breda	18	3	5	10	-10	-7.1	14
17	Volendam	18	3	5	10	-13	-16.4	14
18	Heracles	17	4	2	11	-18	-12.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+17	+11.3	22
2	Feyenoord	9	6	1	2	+10	+11.7	19
3	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+11	+6.4	17
4	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+3	+1.9	17
5	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.8	16
6	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.6	16
7	Groningen	9	4	3	2	+7	+7.7	15
8	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+4	+7.1	15
9	Twente	9	4	3	2	+2	+11.6	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.3	13
11	Heerenveen	9	3	4	2	+1	+8.7	13
12	Zwolle	8	4	1	3	-4	-2.2	13
13	Volendam	9	3	3	3	+2	-1.3	12
14	Excelsior	9	4	0	5	-2	-5.5	12
15	NAC Breda	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.9	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	2	4	-9	-3.8	11
17	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
18	Telstar	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+18	+5.1	27
2	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+11	+8.7	17
3	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+0	+6.6	13
4	Groningen	8	4	1	3	-2	+2.3	13
5	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
6	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	0	4	-4	-1.0	12
7	Twente	9	2	5	2	+3	+6.7	11
8	Ajax	8	2	5	1	+2	-4.2	11
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	8	2	2	4	-3	-7.6	8
11	Zwolle	10	1	4	5	-13	-13.9	7
12	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-13	-6.8	7
13	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
14	Go Ahead Eagles	9	1	3	5	-6	-10.1	6
15	For Sittard	8	1	1	6	-7	-9.1	4
16	Heracles	9	1	1	7	-15	-10.5	4
17	NAC Breda	9	0	3	6	-9	-10.0	3
18	Volendam	9	0	2	7	-15	-15.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.