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Serie A

Referee: Livio Marinelli

Lecce

T S T U T

1–2

Full-time

Parma

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

33%

28%

Both score Ø 36%

33%

39%

Average goals

2,1

1,8

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,85 xG 1,04

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 16. · Parma 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	0	4	+25	+18.6	42
2	Milan	18	11	6	1	+15	+9.5	39
3	Roma	20	13	0	7	+12	+2.5	39
4	Napoli	18	12	2	4	+13	+8.6	38
5	Juventus	19	10	6	3	+11	+15.0	36
6	Como	19	9	7	3	+14	+6.7	34
7	Atalanta	20	8	7	5	+6	+9.7	31
8	Bologna	19	7	6	6	+6	+0.6	27
9	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-10	-4.3	26
10	Lazio	19	6	7	6	+4	-4.7	25
11	Sassuolo	20	6	5	9	-4	-9.9	23
12	Torino	20	6	5	9	-11	-4.6	23
13	Cremonese	19	5	7	7	-3	-10.2	22
14	Cagliari	19	4	7	8	-6	-11.2	19
15	Parma	18	4	6	8	-9	-6.5	18
16	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-13	-10.1	17
17	Genoa	19	3	7	9	-10	-0.4	16
18	Fiorentina	19	2	7	10	-10	+1.8	13
19	Verona	18	2	7	9	-15	-4.0	13
20	Pisa	20	1	10	9	-15	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+18	+11.9	21
2	Roma	10	7	0	3	+8	+4.4	21
3	Milan	10	6	3	1	+7	+7.1	21
4	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+8	+1.0	20
5	Como	9	5	4	0	+9	+4.7	19
6	Juventus	9	5	4	0	+7	+9.8	19
7	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+5	+9.6	19
8	Lazio	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.8	16
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+3	+4.1	14
10	Udinese	10	3	4	3	-4	+1.9	13
11	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.8	11
12	Torino	10	3	2	5	-7	-4.4	11
13	Cremonese	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.6	10
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
15	Parma	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.2	9
16	Lecce	10	2	3	5	-7	-2.3	9
17	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-1	+4.6	8
18	Genoa	10	1	4	5	-7	+0.8	7
19	Verona	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
20	Pisa	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+7	+6.7	21
2	Milan	8	5	3	0	+8	+2.4	18
3	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+5	+7.6	18
4	Roma	10	6	0	4	+4	-2.0	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+4	+5.2	17
6	Como	10	4	3	3	+5	+1.9	15
7	Bologna	10	3	4	3	+3	-3.4	13
8	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
9	Atalanta	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.2	12
10	Sassuolo	10	3	3	4	-1	-4.2	12
11	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	-1	-8.6	12
12	Torino	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.2	12
13	Cagliari	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.6	10
14	Lazio	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.5	9
15	Genoa	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.1	9
16	Parma	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.3	9
17	Lecce	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.8	8
18	Pisa	10	0	7	3	-6	-4.6	7
19	Verona	10	1	4	5	-11	-3.6	7
20	Fiorentina	10	0	5	5	-9	-2.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.