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Eredivisie

Referee: L Gerrets

Utrecht

S U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Excelsior

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 37%

38%

35%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

56%

53%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

53%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,6

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

17 Shots 2

9 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 3

8 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 8. · Excelsior 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	18	12	3	3	+16	39
2	Feyenoord	17	11	5	1	+25	38
3	PSV Eindhoven	18	11	2	5	+22	35
4	Twente	16	10	4	2	+20	34
5	Ajax	17	9	6	2	+27	33
6	Sparta Rotterdam	16	9	4	3	+15	31
7	Heerenveen	17	6	6	5	+0	24
8	Utrecht	16	6	5	5	-2	23
9	Nijmegen	17	4	10	3	+5	22
10	Waalwijk	17	4	7	6	-4	19
11	Go Ahead Eagles	17	4	7	6	-4	19
12	For Sittard	18	5	4	9	-9	19
13	Excelsior	17	6	1	10	-19	19
14	Vitesse	18	3	7	8	-14	16
15	FC Emmen	18	3	6	9	-17	15
16	Groningen	17	3	3	11	-18	12
17	Volendam	17	3	3	11	-24	12
18	Cambuur	17	2	3	12	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Twente	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+19	22
3	Sparta Rotterdam	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Feyenoord	8	5	3	0	+14	18
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	+19	15
6	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Excelsior	8	5	0	3	+0	15
8	Nijmegen	9	2	6	1	+6	12
9	Waalwijk	8	3	3	2	+5	12
10	FC Emmen	9	2	6	1	-1	12
11	Heerenveen	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	For Sittard	10	3	2	5	-3	11
13	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	4	4	-4	10
14	Utrecht	7	2	3	2	-1	9
15	Groningen	8	2	1	5	-6	7
16	Vitesse	9	1	4	4	-11	7
17	Volendam	8	2	0	6	-12	6
18	Cambuur	9	1	0	8	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	10	8	0	2	+12	24
2	Feyenoord	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Ajax	9	5	3	1	+8	18
4	Utrecht	9	4	2	3	-1	14
5	PSV Eindhoven	9	4	1	4	+3	13
6	Heerenveen	9	3	4	2	+0	13
7	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	3	2	+0	9
10	Twente	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Vitesse	9	2	3	4	-3	9
12	For Sittard	8	2	2	4	-6	8
13	Waalwijk	9	1	4	4	-9	7
14	Cambuur	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Volendam	9	1	3	5	-12	6
16	Groningen	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Excelsior	9	1	1	7	-19	4
18	FC Emmen	9	1	0	8	-16	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.