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Eredivisie
Referee: A Lindhout
1–4
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Go Ahead Eagles AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
This season — Eredivisie · 16/17 matches
Win Ø 45%
25%
65%
Points per game
1,2
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
44%
59%
Both score Ø 67%
63%
71%
Average goals
3,2
2,9
Scored
1,6
1,8
Conceded
1,6
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%
13 Shots 16
1 Shots on target 9
7 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Go Ahead Eagles 10. · AZ Alkmaar 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 17 11 5 1 +25 38
2 AZ Alkmaar 17 11 3 3 +13 36
3 PSV Eindhoven 18 11 2 5 +22 35
4 Ajax 17 9 6 2 +27 33
5 Twente 15 10 3 2 +20 33
6 Sparta Rotterdam 16 9 4 3 +15 31
7 Heerenveen 16 6 6 4 +2 24
8 Utrecht 16 6 5 5 -2 23
9 Nijmegen 17 4 10 3 +5 22
10 Go Ahead Eagles 16 4 7 5 -1 19
11 Waalwijk 17 4 7 6 -4 19
12 Excelsior 17 6 1 10 -19 19
13 For Sittard 17 4 4 9 -11 16
14 Vitesse 17 3 6 8 -14 15
15 FC Emmen 18 3 6 9 -17 15
16 Groningen 17 3 3 11 -18 12
17 Volendam 17 3 3 11 -24 12
18 Cambuur 17 2 3 12 -19 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Go Ahead Eagles AZ Alkmaar
38′
V. Pavlidis 0–1
Y. Sugawara
Half-time 0–1
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen 🟨
51′
57′
D. Mihailovic 0–2
Y. Sugawara
S. Sow 🔁
↦ I. Lidberg
69′
E. Linthorst 🔁
↦ T. Tekie
69′
70′
🟨 Pantelis Hatzidiakos
73′
🔁 M. Dekker
↦ Z. Vanheusden
R. Fernandes 🔁
↦ B. Adekanye
78′
F. Stokkers 🔁
↦ E. Llansana
78′
F. Mattiello 🔁
↦ José Fontán
79′
83′
🔁 Z. Buurmeester
↦ D. Mihailovic
83′
🔁 M. van Brederode
↦ J. Odgaard
86′
🔁 M. Lahdo
↦ J. Karlsson
87′
Y. Sugawara 0–3
1–3 W. Willumsson
92′
95′
Z. Buurmeester 1–4
V. Pavlidis
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Go Ahead Eagles

4-2-2-2
1 J. de Lange G
2 M. Deijl D
25 J. Amofa D
3 G. Nauber D
4 José Fontán D
15 T. Tekie M
21 E. Llansana M
11 B. Adekanye M
23 O. Edvardsen M
18 W. Willumsson F
9 I. Lidberg F
Bench (12)
19 S. Sow
8 E. Linthorst
7 R. Fernandes
27 F. Stokkers
33 F. Mattiello
40 L. Plogmann
22 E. Mulder
20 X. Blomme
24 J. Markelo
6 J. Idzes
17 M. Berden
26 J. Bakker

Coach: R. Hake

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 M. Ryan G
2 Y. Sugawara D
3 P. Hatzidiakos D
27 Z. Vanheusden D
5 M. Kerkez D
6 T. Reijnders M
8 J. Clasie M
7 J. Odgaard M
14 D. Mihailovic M
11 J. Karlsson M
9 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (11)
22 M. Dekker
28 Z. Buurmeester
19 M. van Brederode
23 M. Lahdo
45 R. Owusu-Oduro
25 R. Bazoer
34 M. de Wit
17 Y. Barası
12 H. Verhulst
32 F. de Jong
46 W. Goes

Coach: P. Jansen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,93
U
3,68
B ✓
1,88
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,77
U2,5
2,05
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Lindhout · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.