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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Man United

U S U T T

3–2

Full-time

Newcastle

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,5

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 46%

44%

47%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

64%

69%

Both score Ø 57%

56%

58%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,4

2,2

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,45 xG 2,37

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 21

8 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 8. · Newcastle 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	37	27	7	3	+60	+44.5	88
2	Arsenal	37	27	5	5	+61	+46.9	86
3	Liverpool	37	23	10	4	+43	+38.9	79
4	Aston Villa	37	20	8	9	+20	+5.5	68
5	Tottenham	37	19	6	12	+10	+2.2	63
6	Chelsea	37	17	9	11	+13	+17.2	60
7	Newcastle	36	17	6	13	+22	+12.0	57
8	Man United	36	16	6	14	-4	-11.8	54
9	West Ham	37	14	10	13	-12	-17.6	52
10	Brighton	37	12	12	13	-5	+1.0	48
11	Everton	37	13	9	15	-10	+1.1	48
12	Bournemouth	37	13	9	15	-12	-3.2	48
13	Crystal Palace	37	12	10	15	-6	-5.1	46
14	Wolves	37	13	7	17	-13	-17.2	46
15	Fulham	37	12	8	17	-8	-11.6	44
16	Brentford	37	10	9	18	-7	+5.4	39
17	Nott'm Forest	37	8	9	20	-19	-4.2	33
18	Luton	37	6	8	23	-31	-37.5	26
19	Burnley	37	5	9	23	-36	-30.5	24
20	Sheffield United	37	3	7	27	-66	-36.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+30	+33.8	45
2	Man City	18	13	5	0	+33	+25.8	44
3	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+31	+28.5	44
4	Newcastle	19	12	4	3	+27	+21.8	40
5	Aston Villa	19	12	4	3	+20	+13.2	40
6	Tottenham	19	13	0	6	+11	+10.4	39
7	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+17	+20.6	34
8	Brighton	18	8	6	4	+5	+6.7	30
9	Man United	18	9	3	6	+2	+1.4	30
10	Fulham	19	9	2	8	+7	-0.2	29
11	West Ham	19	7	8	4	+3	-3.7	29
12	Everton	19	8	4	7	+4	+9.7	28
13	Bournemouth	19	7	6	6	-1	+3.3	27
14	Wolves	19	8	3	8	-4	-7.5	27
15	Crystal Palace	18	7	4	7	+6	+4.9	25
16	Brentford	18	5	7	6	-3	+4.2	22
17	Nott'm Forest	19	5	5	9	-3	+2.9	20
18	Luton	18	4	4	10	-7	-6.2	16
19	Burnley	18	2	4	12	-23	-6.6	10
20	Sheffield United	18	2	4	12	-35	-11.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	19	14	2	3	+27	+18.7	44
2	Arsenal	19	13	3	3	+30	+18.4	42
3	Liverpool	19	9	7	3	+13	+5.2	34
4	Aston Villa	18	8	4	6	+0	-7.7	28
5	Chelsea	19	7	5	7	-4	-3.4	26
6	Tottenham	18	6	6	6	-1	-8.2	24
7	Man United	18	7	3	8	-6	-13.3	24
8	West Ham	18	7	2	9	-15	-13.9	23
9	Bournemouth	18	6	3	9	-11	-6.5	21
10	Crystal Palace	19	5	6	8	-12	-10.0	21
11	Everton	18	5	5	8	-14	-8.6	20
12	Wolves	18	5	4	9	-9	-9.7	19
13	Brighton	19	4	6	9	-10	-5.7	18
14	Brentford	19	5	2	12	-4	+1.2	17
15	Newcastle	17	5	2	10	-5	-9.8	17
16	Fulham	18	3	6	9	-15	-11.4	15
17	Burnley	19	3	5	11	-13	-23.9	14
18	Nott'm Forest	18	3	4	11	-16	-7.1	13
19	Luton	19	2	4	13	-24	-31.3	10
20	Sheffield United	19	1	3	15	-31	-24.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.