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Copa del Rey
Referee: Alejandro Muñiz
0–1
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marbella Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
4,0
Scored
1,3
3,0
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Copa del Rey · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%
5 Shots 18
2 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marbella 19. · Ath Madrid 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Vallecano 3 3 0 0 +8 9
2 Betis 3 3 0 0 +8 9
3 Osasuna 3 3 0 0 +7 9
4 Pontevedra 3 3 0 0 +7 9
5 Almeria 3 3 0 0 +5 9
6 Getafe 3 2 1 0 +4 7
7 Celta 2 2 0 0 +11 6
8 Las Palmas 2 2 0 0 +8 6
9 Sociedad 2 2 0 0 +6 6
10 Valladolid 2 2 0 0 +5 6
11 Ath Madrid 2 2 0 0 +4 6
12 Elche 2 2 0 0 +4 6
13 Valencia 2 2 0 0 +3 6
14 Sevilla 3 2 0 1 +2 6
15 Barbastro 3 2 0 1 +2 6
16 Santander 2 2 0 0 +2 6
17 Huesca 3 2 0 1 +2 6
18 Ourense CF 2 2 0 0 +2 6
19 Marbella 2 2 0 0 +2 6
20 Eldense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
21 Cartagena 2 2 0 0 +2 6
22 Ferrol 3 2 0 1 +1 6
23 Deportiva Minera 2 1 1 0 +5 4
24 Zaragoza 2 1 1 0 +4 4
25 Girona 2 1 1 0 +4 4
26 Estepona 2 1 1 0 +1 4
27 Granada 3 1 1 1 +1 4
28 Leganes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
29 Tenerife 3 1 1 1 +1 4
30 Alaves 2 1 1 0 +1 4
31 Castellon 2 1 1 0 +1 4
32 Zamora 2 1 1 0 +1 4
33 Orihuela 2 1 1 0 +1 4
34 UD Logroñés 2 1 1 0 +1 4
35 Yeclano 2 1 0 1 +5 3
36 Villarreal 2 1 0 1 +4 3
37 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 +4 3
38 Unionistas de Salamanca 2 1 0 1 +3 3
39 Burgos 2 1 0 1 +2 3
40 Espanol 2 1 0 1 +2 3
41 Vic 2 1 0 1 +2 3
42 Cadiz 2 1 0 1 +2 3
43 Barakaldo 2 1 0 1 +1 3
44 Cultural Leonesa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
45 Ceuta 2 1 0 1 +0 3
46 Europa Fc 2 1 0 1 +0 3
47 Andorra 2 1 0 1 +0 3
48 Gimnastic 2 1 0 1 +0 3
49 Sp Gijon 2 1 0 1 +0 3
50 Parla Escuela 2 1 0 1 +0 3
51 Conquense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
52 Chiclana 2 1 0 1 -1 3
53 Cacereño 2 1 0 1 -1 3
54 Astur 2 1 0 1 -1 3
55 Manises 2 1 0 1 -1 3
56 Sant Andreu 2 1 0 1 -1 3
57 Ejea 2 1 0 1 -1 3
58 UD San Pedro 2 1 0 1 -2 3
59 Villamuriel 2 1 0 1 -4 3
60 Salamanca UDS 2 1 0 1 -6 3
61 Ponferradina 2 0 2 0 +0 2
62 Cordoba 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Selaya 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Baztán 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 Playas Sotavento 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Escobedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 Oviedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Olot 2 0 1 1 -2 1
69 Real Ávila 2 0 1 1 -2 1
70 San Tirso 2 0 1 1 -4 1
71 Gévora 2 0 1 1 -5 1
72 Ontiñena 2 0 1 1 -7 1
73 Lanzarote 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Malaga 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Guijuelo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Gimnástica Segoviana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Juventud Torremolinos 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Albacete 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Ciudad de Lucena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Langreo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Bergantiños 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Mirandes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 SS Reyes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Don Benito 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Numancia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Eibar 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Atlético Paso 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 La Coruna 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Compostela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Águilas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Sonseca 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Aurrerá Vitoria 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Alcorcon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Ibiza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Xerez 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Hércules 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -2 0
100 Lleida Esportiu 1 0 0 1 -2 0
101 Dolorense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
102 Cuarte 1 0 0 1 -2 0
103 Alfaro 1 0 0 1 -2 0
104 Badalona 1 0 0 1 -2 0
105 Promesas EDF 1 0 0 1 -2 0
106 Cortes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 Llanera 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 Móstoles 1 0 0 1 -3 0
109 Levante 1 0 0 1 -3 0
110 CD Coria 1 0 0 1 -3 0
111 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
112 Mallorca 1 0 0 1 -3 0
113 Real Jaén 1 0 0 1 -3 0
114 L'Hospitalet 1 0 0 1 -4 0
115 Utebo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
116 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -4 0
117 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -4 0
118 Sporting Mahón 1 0 0 1 -4 0
119 Extremadura 1924 1 0 0 1 -4 0
120 Poblense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
121 Tudelano 1 0 0 1 -5 0
122 Jove Español 1 0 0 1 -5 0
123 Laredo 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marbella Ath Madrid
16′
A. Griezmann 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 Koke
↦ Pablo Barrios
60′
🔁 A. Sørloth
↦ J. Alvarez
62′
🟨 Clément Lenglet
R. Edwards 🔁
↦ Javi Duarte
71′
Marcos Peña 🔁
↦ Alberto Soto
71′
73′
🟨 Javi Galán
75′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ R. De Paul
75′
🔁 Marcos Llorente
↦ C. Gallagher
Jorge Álvarez 🔁
↦ Genar Fornés
83′
Du Yuezheng 🔁
↦ Y. Diori
84′
Marcos Olguin 🟨
85′
90′
🟨 Koke
B. Espinosa 🔁
↦ Luis Acosta
91′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Marbella

4-4-2
13 Dani Martín G
14 Marcos Olguín D
10 Aitor Puñal D
15 Y. Diori D
3 Genar Fornés D
19 E. Ohemeng M
6 Javi Duarte M
5 Luis Acosta M
11 Alberto Soto M
7 José Callejón F
16 Dorian Junior F
Bench (11)
24 R. Edwards
23 Marcos Peña
2 Jorge Álvarez
9 Du Yuezheng
20 B. Espinosa
21 Pablo Muñoz
12 J. Assi
4 José Carrasco
1 Alberto Lejárraga
8 Jony Álamo
17 Íñigo Alayeto

Coach: Fran Beltrán

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
1 J. Musso G
16 N. Molina D
24 Robin Le Normand D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
4 C. Gallagher M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (10)
6 Koke
9 A. Sørloth
10 Á. Correa
14 Marcos Llorente
31 Antonio Gomis
3 César Azpilicueta
23 Reinildo
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
12 Samuel Lino
20 A. Witsel

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Alejandro Muñiz · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.