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League Cup

Referee: A Madley

Arsenal

S S U S U

3–2

Full-time

Crystal Palace

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,3

Scored

4,0

2,7

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+3,5

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

12 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 10. · Crystal Palace 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Crystal Palace	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+6	7
4	Preston	4	2	1	1	+4	7
5	Southampton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Fleetwood Town	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Man United	2	2	0	0	+10	6
10	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+7	6
11	Watford	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	6
14	Blackpool	3	2	0	1	+4	6
15	Leyton Orient	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Wycombe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
19	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
20	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
21	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+1	4
23	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	AFC Wimbledon	3	1	1	1	+0	4
25	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
26	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
27	Barrow	3	1	1	1	-4	4
28	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-6	4
29	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
30	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+3	3
31	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Man City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
48	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
49	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
50	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
60	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
62	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
41	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
42	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
43	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
44	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
64	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+6	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	-1	3
24	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
25	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-7	1
37	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0
68	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.