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Europa League
Referee: I Kovács
Atalanta
S S S T S
3–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,3
4,0
Scored
1,7
3,0
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 67%
58%
75%
Points per game
2,1
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
50%
58%
Both score Ø 54%
50%
58%
Average goals
2,5
3,4
Scored
1,8
2,6
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,79 xG 0,76
33% Possession 67%
10 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
21 Free kicks against 12
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Atalanta Leverkusen
1–0 A. Lookman ⚽
D. Zappacosta
12′
Berat Djimsiti 🟨
22′
2–0 A. Lookman ⚽
26′
Gianluca Scamacca 🟨
35′
35′
🟨 Florian Wirtz
Half-time 2–0
G. Scalvini 🔁
↦ S. Kolašinac
46′
46′
🔁 V. Boniface
↦ J. Stanišić
M. Pašalić 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
57′
Davide Zappacosta 🟨
60′
67′
🟨 Edmond Tapsoba
68′
🔁 R. Andrich
↦ E. Palacios
69′
🔁 A. Hložek
↦ Álex Grimaldo
Teun Koopmeiners 🟨
70′
73′
🟨 Robert Andrich
3–0 A. Lookman ⚽
G. Scamacca
75′
81′
🔁 N. Tella
↦ J. Frimpong
81′
🔁 P. Schick
↦ F. Wirtz
H. Hateboer 🔁
↦ D. Zappacosta
84′
E. Touré 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
84′
R. Tolói 🔁
↦ M. Ruggeri
91′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 J. Musso G
19 B. Djimsiti D
4 I. Hien D
23 S. Kolašinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
13 Éderson M
7 T. Koopmeiners M
22 M. Ruggeri M
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
90 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
42 G. Scalvini
8 M. Pašalić
33 H. Hateboer
10 E. Touré
2 R. Tolói
31 F. Rossi
29 M. Carnesecchi
25 M. Adopo
20 M. Bakker
59 Aleksey Miranchuk
15 M. de Roon
3 E. Holm

Coach: G. Gasperini

Leverkusen

3-4-2-1
17 M. Kovář G
12 E. Tapsoba D
4 J. Tah D
3 P. Hincapié D
2 J. Stanišić M
25 E. Palacios M
34 G. Xhaka M
20 Álex Grimaldo M
30 J. Frimpong F
10 F. Wirtz F
21 A. Adli F
Bench (12)
22 V. Boniface
8 R. Andrich
23 A. Hložek
19 N. Tella
14 P. Schick
7 J. Hofmann
32 G. Puerta
1 L. Hrádecký
9 Borja Iglesias
13 Arthur
6 O. Kossounou
36 N. Lomb

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovács · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.