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Serie A

Referee: M Irrati

Spezia

U S T U U

0–3

Full-time

Lazio

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 39%

18%

59%

Points per game

0,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

34%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,69 xG 2,79

53% Possession 47%

6 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Lazio 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	29	24	2	3	+45	+8.2	74
2	Juventus	29	18	5	6	+23	+6.6	59
3	Lazio	29	17	7	5	+26	+0.9	58
4	Roma	29	16	5	8	+13	+4.8	53
5	Milan	29	15	7	7	+12	+3.0	52
6	Inter	29	16	3	10	+15	+13.1	51
7	Atalanta	29	14	6	9	+13	+4.4	48
8	Bologna	29	12	7	10	+2	-1.4	43
9	Fiorentina	29	11	8	10	+2	+3.1	41
10	Udinese	29	9	12	8	+3	-0.8	39
11	Torino	29	10	8	11	-5	+0.3	38
12	Sassuolo	29	10	7	12	-6	+3.6	37
13	Monza	29	9	8	12	-7	-0.9	35
14	Empoli	30	7	11	12	-12	-6.6	32
15	Salernitana	29	6	11	12	-16	-8.2	29
16	Lecce	29	6	9	14	-10	-2.9	27
17	Spezia	28	5	10	13	-20	-7.0	25
18	Verona	28	5	6	17	-19	-4.5	21
19	Cremonese	30	3	10	17	-27	-8.3	19
20	Sampdoria	29	3	6	20	-32	-7.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	14	11	1	2	+20	+2.7	34
3	Inter	15	11	0	4	+19	+5.9	33
4	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+12	+0.3	30
5	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	+4.9	30
6	Roma	14	9	1	4	+11	+0.5	28
7	Bologna	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.1	26
8	Fiorentina	15	6	5	4	+0	+4.4	23
9	Atalanta	14	6	3	5	+6	+5.4	21
10	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+2	+0.4	21
11	Udinese	14	4	8	2	+7	+3.2	20
12	Monza	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.0	19
13	Empoli	14	5	4	5	-2	-1.3	19
14	Torino	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.3	19
15	Salernitana	15	4	5	6	-1	-5.4	17
16	Verona	15	5	2	8	-6	-1.8	17
17	Spezia	14	3	7	4	-5	-4.3	16
18	Lecce	14	2	6	6	-5	-0.6	12
19	Cremonese	15	2	3	10	-16	-3.8	9
20	Sampdoria	15	1	4	10	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	15	13	1	1	+25	+5.6	40
2	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+14	+0.6	28
3	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
4	Roma	15	7	4	4	+2	+4.3	25
5	Juventus	14	7	2	5	+1	+1.5	23
6	Milan	15	6	4	5	+1	-1.9	22
7	Torino	15	5	4	6	-3	-1.0	19
8	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.0	19
9	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
10	Inter	14	5	3	6	-4	+7.2	18
11	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-8	-2.4	17
12	Sassuolo	15	4	4	7	-8	+3.2	16
13	Monza	14	4	4	6	-8	-2.0	16
14	Lecce	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.2	15
15	Empoli	16	2	7	7	-10	-5.3	13
16	Salernitana	14	2	6	6	-15	-2.8	12
17	Cremonese	15	1	7	7	-11	-4.5	10
18	Spezia	14	2	3	9	-15	-2.7	9
19	Sampdoria	14	2	2	10	-18	-7.9	8
20	Verona	13	0	4	9	-13	-2.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.