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Coppa Italia

Referee: D Paterna

Fiorentina

S S T U S

1–0

Full-time

Sampdoria

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Sampdoria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

13 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Torino	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Spezia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Bari	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Monza	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Parma	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Modena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Ascoli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	-3	3
20	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Perugia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Benevento	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Reggina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Verona	1	0	0	1	-3	0
37	Padova	1	0	0	1	-3	0
38	Como	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Torino	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Spezia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Modena	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Bari	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Palermo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Monza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Parma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	Verona	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ascoli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Bari	2	1	0	1	+2	3
3	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
4	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Parma	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Monza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	-3	3
10	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Perugia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Benevento	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Reggina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Modena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Padova	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Como	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.