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Serie A
Referee: A Santoro
Roma
S S T U U
1–0
Full-time
Bologna
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 43%
53%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 57%
47%
67%
Average goals
2,1
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
0,9
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%
14 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roma 7. · Bologna 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 15 13 2 0 +25 41
2 Milan 16 11 3 2 +15 36
3 Juventus 15 9 4 2 +17 31
4 Lazio 15 9 3 3 +15 30
5 Inter 15 10 0 5 +12 30
6 Atalanta 16 8 4 4 +7 28
7 Roma 15 8 3 4 +4 27
8 Udinese 15 6 6 3 +7 24
9 Torino 16 6 4 6 -1 22
10 Fiorentina 15 5 4 6 -2 19
11 Bologna 15 5 4 6 -5 19
12 Salernitana 16 4 5 7 -6 17
13 Empoli 15 4 5 6 -7 17
14 Monza 15 5 1 9 -6 16
15 Sassuolo 16 4 4 8 -8 16
16 Lecce 15 3 6 6 -3 15
17 Spezia 16 3 5 8 -12 14
18 Sampdoria 16 2 3 11 -20 9
19 Cremonese 15 0 7 8 -15 7
20 Verona 16 1 3 12 -17 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roma Bologna
1–0 L. Pellegrini
6′
Roger Ibañez 🟨
33′
Half-time 1–0
57′
🔁 M. Aebischer
↦ R. Soriano
T. Abraham 🔁
↦ N. Zaniolo
60′
N. Zalewski 🔁
↦ S. El Shaarawy
64′
N. Matić 🔁
↦ B. Tahirovic
64′
65′
🔁 A. Cambiaso
↦ C. Lykogiannis
65′
🔁 J. Schouten
↦ G. Medel
69′
🟨 Lewis Ferguson
E. Bove 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
74′
Zeki Çelik 🟨
76′
82′
🔁 N. Pyyhtiä
↦ S. Posch
85′
🟨 Michel Aebischer
97′
🟨 Nicolás Domínguez
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-1-2
1 Rui Patrício G
23 G. Mancini D
6 C. Smalling D
3 Ibañez D
19 Z. Çelik M
4 B. Cristante M
68 B. Tahirovic M
92 S. El Shaarawy M
7 L. Pellegrini F
21 P. Dybala F
22 N. Zaniolo F
Bench (13)
9 T. Abraham
59 N. Zalewski
8 N. Matić
52 E. Bove
24 M. Kumbulla
20 M. Camara
77 J. Majchrzak
17 M. Viña
37 L. Spinazzola
99 M. Svilar
63 P. Boer
14 E. Shomurodov
62 C. Volpato

Coach: José Mourinho

Bologna

4-2-3-1
28 Ł. Skorupski G
3 S. Posch D
5 A. Soumaoro D
26 J. Lucumí D
22 C. Lykogiannis D
19 L. Ferguson M
17 G. Medel M
7 R. Orsolini M
8 N. Domínguez M
21 R. Soriano M
9 M. Arnautović F
Bench (9)
20 M. Aebischer
50 A. Cambiaso
30 J. Schouten
25 N. Pyyhtiä
4 J. Sosa
18 A. Raimondo
10 N. Sansone
6 N. Moro
23 N. Bagnolini

Coach: T. Motta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,63
U
3,87
B
5,72
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,04
U2,5 ✓
1,79
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Santoro · 51 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.