Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Roma
Sampdoria
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Inter
|
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | +33 | 43 |
| 2 |
Napoli
|
18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | +22 | 39 |
| 3 |
Milan
|
18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | +16 | 39 |
| 4 |
Atalanta
|
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | +14 | 38 |
| 5 |
Juventus
|
19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | +10 | 34 |
| 6 |
Roma
|
18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 |
Fiorentina
|
18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | +9 | 31 |
| 8 |
Lazio
|
19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | +5 | 31 |
| 9 |
Empoli
|
18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 |
Bologna
|
19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 27 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | +5 | 25 |
| 12 |
Sassuolo
|
19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 24 |
| 13 |
Verona
|
18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 23 |
| 14 |
Udinese
|
18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | -2 | 20 |
| 15 |
Sampdoria
|
18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 19 |
| 16 |
Venezia
|
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 17 |
| 17 |
Spezia
|
18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -21 | 13 |
| 18 |
Genoa
|
19 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -18 | 11 |
| 19 |
Cagliari
|
19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -23 | 10 |
| 20 |
Salernitana
|
18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -31 | 8 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Atalanta
Roma
Roma
Spezia
Roma
Inter
Bologna
Roma
Roma
Torino
P Giacomelli · 38 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.