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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Sampdoria

T S S T U

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

24%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 60%

71%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

7 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sampdoria 10. · Fiorentina 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	22	15	4	3	+20	49
2	Inter	21	14	5	2	+28	47
3	Roma	22	13	4	5	+12	43
4	Juventus	21	12	6	3	+22	42
5	Napoli	21	13	1	7	+24	40
6	Lazio	21	12	4	5	+9	40
7	Atalanta	21	10	7	4	+19	37
8	Sassuolo	21	8	7	6	+2	31
9	Verona	21	8	6	7	+3	30
10	Sampdoria	21	8	3	10	-1	27
11	Genoa	22	6	7	9	-7	25
12	Bologna	22	6	6	10	-7	24
13	Spezia	22	6	6	10	-8	24
14	Udinese	22	6	6	10	-8	24
15	Benevento	22	6	6	10	-17	24
16	Fiorentina	21	5	7	9	-12	22
17	Torino	22	2	11	9	-9	17
18	Cagliari	21	3	6	12	-15	15
19	Parma	21	2	7	12	-27	13
20	Crotone	21	3	3	15	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	12	9	3	0	+18	30
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+16	25
3	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+18	22
5	Milan	11	6	3	2	+9	21
6	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+10	18
8	Verona	10	5	2	3	+5	17
9	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+0	16
10	Bologna	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Genoa	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Sampdoria	10	4	1	5	+1	13
13	Sassuolo	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Crotone	10	3	1	6	-7	10
16	Benevento	11	2	4	5	-9	10
17	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Spezia	11	2	3	6	-7	9
19	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7
20	Parma	11	1	4	6	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	11	9	1	1	+11	28
2	Inter	11	6	4	1	+12	22
3	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+6	20
4	Juventus	11	5	4	2	+10	19
5	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+6	18
7	Sassuolo	11	5	3	3	+2	18
8	Spezia	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Sampdoria	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Benevento	11	4	2	5	-8	14
11	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Roma	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Genoa	11	2	5	4	-6	11
15	Torino	11	2	4	5	-4	10
16	Bologna	11	2	3	6	-6	9
17	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-9	6
18	Parma	10	1	3	6	-12	6
19	Fiorentina	10	1	3	6	-12	6
20	Crotone	11	0	2	9	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.