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Premier League

Referee: T Bramall

Newcastle

T S T S S

4–4

Full-time

Luton

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 35%

45%

24%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

68%

67%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

71%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,40 xG 2,36

54% Possession 46%

19 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 8

7 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 8. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	15	6	1	+32	+24.6	51
2	Man City	21	14	4	3	+27	+21.5	46
3	Arsenal	22	14	4	4	+23	+24.2	46
4	Tottenham	23	13	5	5	+14	+0.1	44
5	Aston Villa	22	13	4	5	+14	+9.7	43
6	West Ham	22	10	6	6	+3	-7.8	36
7	Man United	22	11	2	9	-4	-3.0	35
8	Newcastle	22	10	2	10	+11	+5.3	32
9	Brighton	22	8	8	6	+1	+3.1	32
10	Chelsea	22	9	4	9	+1	+9.6	31
11	Wolves	22	8	5	9	-2	-7.3	29
12	Everton	23	8	5	10	-4	+4.3	29
13	Bournemouth	21	7	5	9	-11	-4.6	26
14	Fulham	22	7	4	11	-8	-12.1	25
15	Crystal Palace	22	6	6	10	-11	-6.5	24
16	Brentford	21	6	4	11	-5	+6.8	22
17	Nott'm Forest	22	5	5	12	-13	-7.8	20
18	Luton	21	5	4	12	-10	-17.9	19
19	Burnley	22	3	3	16	-23	-18.2	12
20	Sheffield United	22	2	4	16	-35	-24.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	9	2	0	+21	+22.1	29
2	Aston Villa	11	9	1	1	+19	+11.1	28
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+17	+16.5	26
4	Man City	10	7	3	0	+17	+7.8	24
5	Newcastle	11	8	0	3	+15	+12.2	24
6	Tottenham	11	8	0	3	+8	+3.3	24
7	Brighton	11	5	5	1	+8	+6.1	20
8	Fulham	11	6	1	4	+7	+2.8	19
9	West Ham	11	5	4	2	+7	-3.8	19
10	Man United	11	6	1	4	-3	+1.7	19
11	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+4	+10.4	18
12	Wolves	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.7	18
13	Brentford	11	4	3	4	+0	+4.7	15
14	Everton	12	3	3	6	-1	+7.1	12
15	Nott'm Forest	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.0	12
16	Crystal Palace	11	3	3	5	-2	-0.7	12
17	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	-5	-1.5	12
18	Luton	11	3	2	6	+0	-1.5	11
19	Sheffield United	11	2	2	7	-14	-9.1	8
20	Burnley	11	1	1	9	-14	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	6	4	1	+11	+2.5	22
2	Man City	11	7	1	3	+10	+13.7	22
3	Tottenham	12	5	5	2	+6	-3.3	20
4	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+6	+7.7	20
5	Everton	11	5	2	4	-3	-2.8	17
6	West Ham	11	5	2	4	-4	-4.0	17
7	Man United	11	5	1	5	-1	-4.7	16
8	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	-5	-1.4	15
9	Bournemouth	11	4	2	5	-6	-3.1	14
10	Chelsea	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.9	13
11	Brighton	11	3	3	5	-7	-3.0	12
12	Crystal Palace	11	3	3	5	-9	-5.8	12
13	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-3	-4.6	11
14	Newcastle	11	2	2	7	-4	-6.9	8
15	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-9	-12.5	8
16	Luton	10	2	2	6	-10	-16.4	8
17	Nott'm Forest	11	2	2	7	-11	-6.8	8
18	Brentford	10	2	1	7	-5	+2.1	7
19	Fulham	11	1	3	7	-15	-14.9	6
20	Sheffield United	11	0	2	9	-21	-14.9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.