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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Aston Villa

T S S U U

1–3

Full-time

Newcastle

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 53%

62%

43%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

67%

48%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,46 xG 2,63

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 4. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	21	14	6	1	+29	+22.3	48
2	Arsenal	22	14	4	4	+23	+24.2	46
3	Man City	20	13	4	3	+25	+21.2	43
4	Aston Villa	21	13	4	4	+16	+10.9	43
5	Tottenham	21	12	4	5	+13	+0.3	40
6	West Ham	21	10	5	6	+3	-8.0	35
7	Brighton	22	8	8	6	+1	+3.1	32
8	Man United	21	10	2	9	-5	-4.2	32
9	Chelsea	21	9	4	8	+4	+11.9	31
10	Newcastle	21	9	2	10	+9	+4.1	29
11	Wolves	21	8	5	8	-1	-6.1	29
12	Everton	22	8	4	10	-4	+2.7	28
13	Fulham	22	7	4	11	-8	-12.1	25
14	Bournemouth	20	7	4	9	-11	-4.4	25
15	Crystal Palace	22	6	6	10	-11	-6.5	24
16	Brentford	20	6	4	10	-4	+8.2	22
17	Nott'm Forest	22	5	5	12	-13	-7.8	20
18	Luton	21	5	4	12	-10	-17.9	19
19	Burnley	21	3	3	15	-21	-17.9	12
20	Sheffield United	22	2	4	16	-35	-24.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	10	9	1	0	+21	+12.3	28
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+18	+19.8	26
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+17	+16.5	26
4	Newcastle	11	8	0	3	+15	+12.2	24
5	Man City	9	6	3	0	+15	+7.5	21
6	Tottenham	10	7	0	3	+7	+1.9	21
7	Brighton	11	5	5	1	+8	+6.1	20
8	Fulham	11	6	1	4	+7	+2.8	19
9	Man United	11	6	1	4	-3	+1.7	19
10	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+7	-4.0	18
11	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+4	+10.4	18
12	Wolves	10	5	3	2	+2	-1.6	18
13	Brentford	11	4	3	4	+0	+4.7	15
14	Nott'm Forest	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.0	12
15	Crystal Palace	11	3	3	5	-2	-0.7	12
16	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	-5	-1.5	12
17	Luton	11	3	2	6	+0	-1.5	11
18	Everton	11	3	2	6	-1	+5.4	11
19	Sheffield United	11	2	2	7	-14	-9.1	8
20	Burnley	11	1	1	9	-14	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	6	4	1	+11	+2.5	22
2	Man City	11	7	1	3	+10	+13.7	22
3	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+6	+7.7	20
4	Tottenham	11	5	4	2	+6	-1.6	19
5	Everton	11	5	2	4	-3	-2.8	17
6	West Ham	11	5	2	4	-4	-4.0	17
7	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	-5	-1.4	15
8	Chelsea	10	4	1	5	+0	+1.4	13
9	Man United	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.8	13
10	Bournemouth	10	4	1	5	-6	-2.9	13
11	Brighton	11	3	3	5	-7	-3.0	12
12	Crystal Palace	11	3	3	5	-9	-5.8	12
13	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-3	-4.6	11
14	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-7	-12.2	8
15	Luton	10	2	2	6	-10	-16.4	8
16	Nott'm Forest	11	2	2	7	-11	-6.8	8
17	Brentford	9	2	1	6	-4	+3.6	7
18	Fulham	11	1	3	7	-15	-14.9	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	2	7	-6	-8.1	5
20	Sheffield United	11	0	2	9	-21	-14.9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.