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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Barcelona

S S S T T

4–2

Full-time

Valencia

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,2

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 54%

66%

41%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

56%

41%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,21 xG 2,13

80% Possession 20%

27 Shots 5

13 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

15 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Barcelona 3. · Valencia 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	33	26	6	1	+49	+31.9	84
2	Girona	33	22	5	6	+29	+13.1	71
3	Barcelona	32	21	7	4	+27	+34.3	70
4	Ath Madrid	33	20	4	9	+23	+19.5	64
5	Ath Bilbao	33	16	10	7	+20	+14.4	58
6	Sociedad	33	13	12	8	+11	+7.4	51
7	Betis	33	12	13	8	+2	-5.5	49
8	Valencia	32	13	8	11	+1	-5.7	47
9	Villarreal	33	12	9	12	-1	-1.5	45
10	Getafe	33	10	13	10	-4	-8.5	43
11	Osasuna	33	11	6	16	-12	-7.5	39
12	Sevilla	33	9	11	13	-4	-9.6	38
13	Alaves	33	10	8	15	-7	+1.0	38
14	Las Palmas	33	10	7	16	-11	-22.7	37
15	Vallecano	33	7	13	13	-15	-4.3	34
16	Mallorca	33	6	14	13	-12	-6.2	32
17	Celta	33	7	10	16	-13	-6.6	31
18	Cadiz	33	4	14	15	-23	-15.2	26
19	Granada	33	4	9	20	-25	-16.1	21
20	Almeria	33	1	11	21	-35	-12.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	17	15	1	1	+22	+17.5	46
2	Real Madrid	16	14	2	0	+31	+23.0	44
3	Girona	16	13	2	1	+25	+11.6	41
4	Ath Bilbao	17	11	5	1	+22	+15.6	38
5	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+15	+19.5	37
6	Betis	17	8	7	2	+9	+7.3	31
7	Valencia	16	8	5	3	+9	+3.6	29
8	Getafe	16	8	5	3	+4	-0.4	29
9	Alaves	17	8	3	6	+3	+6.6	27
10	Sociedad	16	6	6	4	+5	+4.1	24
11	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+3	+5.5	22
12	Mallorca	16	5	7	4	+1	-0.7	22
13	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
14	Osasuna	16	6	3	7	-5	+0.9	21
15	Sevilla	16	5	5	6	-1	-2.4	20
16	Cadiz	17	4	8	5	-4	+3.5	20
17	Granada	17	4	6	7	-3	-1.0	18
18	Celta	16	4	5	7	-4	+7.8	17
19	Vallecano	16	3	8	5	-7	-2.3	17
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+18	+8.9	40
2	Barcelona	16	9	6	1	+12	+14.8	33
3	Girona	17	9	3	5	+4	+1.5	30
4	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+6	+3.3	27
5	Villarreal	16	6	5	5	-4	-6.9	23
6	Ath Bilbao	16	5	5	6	-2	-1.2	20
7	Ath Madrid	16	5	3	8	+1	+2.0	18
8	Sevilla	17	4	6	7	-3	-7.3	18
9	Osasuna	17	5	3	9	-7	-8.4	18
10	Betis	16	4	6	6	-7	-12.8	18
11	Valencia	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.2	18
12	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-8	-2.0	17
13	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-11	-16.2	15
14	Getafe	17	2	8	7	-8	-8.1	14
15	Celta	17	3	5	9	-9	-14.4	14
16	Alaves	16	2	5	9	-10	-5.7	11
17	Mallorca	17	1	7	9	-13	-5.5	10
18	Almeria	16	1	3	12	-18	-12.4	6
19	Cadiz	16	0	6	10	-19	-18.7	6
20	Granada	16	0	3	13	-22	-15.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.