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Championship

Referee: J Brooks

Leeds

T S T U S

0–1

Full-time

Southampton

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 56%

58%

53%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

53%

64%

Both score Ø 53%

42%

64%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

11 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 3. · Southampton 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	46	31	4	11	+48	+39.1	97
2	Ipswich	46	28	12	6	+35	+26.2	96
3	Leeds	45	26	10	9	+41	+37.5	88
4	Southampton	45	24	10	11	+22	+30.2	82
5	West Brom	46	21	13	12	+24	+9.2	76
6	Norwich	46	21	11	14	+13	+0.2	74
7	Hull	46	19	13	14	+8	+8.1	70
8	Middlesbrough	46	20	9	17	+9	+12.3	69
9	Coventry	46	17	13	16	+11	+8.3	64
10	Preston	46	18	9	19	-11	-19.5	63
11	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	+2	-0.6	62
12	Cardiff	46	19	5	22	-17	-26.8	62
13	Millwall	46	16	11	19	-10	-11.2	59
14	Swansea	46	15	12	19	-6	-6.6	57
15	Watford	46	13	17	16	+0	-3.6	56
16	Sunderland	46	16	8	22	-2	+8.6	56
17	Stoke	46	15	11	20	-11	-2.2	56
18	QPR	46	15	11	20	-11	-5.9	56
19	Blackburn	46	14	11	21	-14	-6.6	53
20	Sheffield Weds	46	15	8	23	-24	-8.0	53
21	Plymouth	46	13	12	21	-11	-21.8	51
22	Birmingham	46	13	11	22	-15	-7.4	50
23	Huddersfield	46	9	18	19	-29	-14.6	45
24	Rotherham	46	5	12	29	-52	-45.1	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	23	16	6	1	+27	+24.8	54
2	Leeds	22	16	5	1	+33	+25.4	53
3	Leicester	23	17	1	5	+29	+19.3	52
4	West Brom	23	15	5	3	+23	+14.7	50
5	Norwich	23	15	5	3	+22	+11.1	50
6	Southampton	23	15	3	5	+26	+23.2	48
7	Bristol City	23	11	4	8	+10	+3.6	37
8	Preston	23	11	4	8	-1	-5.7	37
9	Birmingham	23	10	6	7	+6	+2.3	36
10	Coventry	23	9	8	6	+9	+7.4	35
11	Plymouth	23	10	5	8	+6	-10.2	35
12	Middlesbrough	23	10	4	9	+4	+11.4	34
13	Hull	23	8	9	6	+8	+7.7	33
14	Cardiff	23	10	3	10	-5	-11.4	33
15	Sunderland	23	10	2	11	+0	+6.9	32
16	Millwall	23	9	5	9	-7	-2.3	32
17	Sheffield Weds	23	8	7	8	+0	+3.5	31
18	Stoke	23	8	6	9	-3	+2.8	30
19	Swansea	23	8	5	10	-2	+3.3	29
20	Watford	23	6	9	8	+4	+6.3	27
21	QPR	23	7	6	10	-4	+1.0	27
22	Huddersfield	23	6	8	9	-10	-4.2	26
23	Blackburn	23	6	7	10	-7	+3.2	25
24	Rotherham	23	5	8	10	-4	-11.1	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	23	14	3	6	+19	+19.8	45
2	Ipswich	23	12	6	5	+8	+1.4	42
3	Hull	23	11	4	8	+0	+0.4	37
4	Leeds	23	10	5	8	+8	+12.1	35
5	Middlesbrough	23	10	5	8	+5	+0.9	35
6	Southampton	22	9	7	6	-4	+7.0	34
7	Coventry	23	8	5	10	+2	+0.8	29
8	Watford	23	7	8	8	-4	-9.9	29
9	QPR	23	8	5	10	-7	-6.9	29
10	Cardiff	23	9	2	12	-12	-15.4	29
11	Swansea	23	7	7	9	-4	-10.0	28
12	Blackburn	23	8	4	11	-7	-9.8	28
13	Millwall	23	7	6	10	-3	-8.9	27
14	West Brom	23	6	8	9	+1	-5.5	26
15	Stoke	23	7	5	11	-8	-5.0	26
16	Preston	23	7	5	11	-10	-13.8	26
17	Bristol City	23	6	7	10	-8	-4.2	25
18	Sunderland	23	6	6	11	-2	+1.7	24
19	Norwich	23	6	6	11	-9	-10.9	24
20	Sheffield Weds	23	7	1	15	-24	-11.5	22
21	Huddersfield	23	3	10	10	-19	-10.4	19
22	Plymouth	23	3	7	13	-17	-11.6	16
23	Birmingham	23	3	5	15	-21	-9.7	14
24	Rotherham	23	0	4	19	-48	-34.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.