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Championship

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Aston Villa

U T S S U

2–2

Full-time

Brentford

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,3

2,7

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

13 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Brentford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+6	7
4	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Derby	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Millwall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Rotherham	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	Birmingham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-3	2
21	Norwich	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0
24	QPR	4	0	0	4	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+5	3
10	Derby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hull	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bolton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Ipswich	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.