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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Union Berlin

T T T S S

2–2

Full-time

Mainz

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 24%

40%

Points per game

1,4

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,35 xG 1,01

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 8. · Mainz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	13	2	0	+44	+34.1	41
2	Dortmund	16	9	6	1	+14	+8.7	33
3	Leverkusen	15	9	2	4	+13	+10.1	29
4	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+11	+7.3	29
5	Hoffenheim	15	8	3	4	+9	+0.4	27
6	Stuttgart	15	8	2	5	+3	+1.9	26
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	5	4	+0	+1.4	26
8	Union Berlin	15	6	3	6	-3	-2.5	21
9	Freiburg	15	5	5	5	-1	+4.3	20
10	Werder Bremen	15	4	5	6	-10	-8.7	17
11	FC Koln	15	4	4	7	-2	-3.2	16
12	M'gladbach	15	4	4	7	-6	-2.2	16
13	Hamburg	15	4	4	7	-9	-3.9	16
14	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.2	15
15	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	-9.9	14
16	St Pauli	15	3	3	9	-13	-11.1	12
17	Heidenheim	15	3	2	10	-21	-10.3	11
18	Mainz	15	1	5	9	-13	-11.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+25	+16.9	22
2	RB Leipzig	7	6	0	1	+13	+6.3	18
3	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+9	+5.7	17
4	Leverkusen	8	5	1	2	+12	+10.4	16
5	Stuttgart	7	5	1	1	+1	+0.2	16
6	Hamburg	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.5	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.3	14
8	Freiburg	7	3	3	1	+5	+6.8	12
9	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
10	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.0	12
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-4	+0.6	11
12	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.7	10
13	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	+3	+3.0	8
14	Heidenheim	8	2	2	4	-9	-5.9	8
15	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
16	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.0	6
17	Wolfsburg	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.1	5
18	Mainz	8	0	3	5	-6	-2.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+19	+17.2	19
2	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.3	13
5	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	-3	-1.9	12
6	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
7	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.8	10
8	Stuttgart	8	3	1	4	+2	+1.7	10
9	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.2	10
10	Union Berlin	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
11	FC Koln	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.1	8
12	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-6	-2.6	8
13	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.3	6
14	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-6	-7.8	5
15	Mainz	7	1	2	4	-7	-8.4	5
16	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	-4.2	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	0	6	-12	-4.4	3
18	Hamburg	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.