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Superligaen

Referee: J Sundberg

Aarhus

U S S S U

0–1

Full-time

Midtjylland

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aarhus Midtjylland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 52%

39%

65%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

35%

61%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,2

3,1

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

7 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aarhus 5. · Midtjylland 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brondby	23	15	5	3	+25	+6.7	50
2	Midtjylland	23	15	3	5	+19	+13.2	48
3	FC Copenhagen	24	14	3	7	+20	+16.8	45
4	Nordsjaelland	24	12	7	5	+16	+4.9	43
5	Aarhus	23	9	10	4	+5	+3.6	37
6	Randers FC	24	7	8	9	-8	-0.3	29
7	Silkeborg	23	8	4	11	-4	+6.4	28
8	Viborg	24	7	6	11	-11	-5.2	27
9	Odense	24	6	7	11	-8	-6.0	25
10	Lyngby	24	6	6	12	-16	-5.8	24
11	Vejle	24	5	8	11	-6	-17.8	23
12	Hvidovre IF	24	2	5	17	-32	-16.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Midtjylland	12	8	2	2	+14	+9.1	26
2	Nordsjaelland	12	7	4	1	+12	+5.7	25
3	Brondby	11	7	2	2	+13	+7.1	23
4	FC Copenhagen	12	7	1	4	+12	+12.8	22
5	Viborg	12	6	3	3	+5	-1.2	21
6	Silkeborg	12	5	3	4	+3	+7.4	18
7	Aarhus	11	5	3	3	+0	+3.0	18
8	Lyngby	12	4	5	3	+3	+1.2	17
9	Randers FC	12	4	4	4	-2	+3.5	16
10	Vejle	12	3	4	5	+0	-4.7	13
11	Odense	12	0	3	9	-15	-1.9	3
12	Hvidovre IF	12	0	2	10	-21	-4.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brondby	12	8	3	1	+12	-0.4	27
2	FC Copenhagen	12	7	2	3	+8	+4.0	23
3	Odense	12	6	4	2	+7	-4.0	22
4	Midtjylland	11	7	1	3	+5	+4.0	22
5	Aarhus	12	4	7	1	+5	+0.7	19
6	Nordsjaelland	12	5	3	4	+4	-0.7	18
7	Randers FC	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.9	13
8	Vejle	12	2	4	6	-6	-13.1	10
9	Silkeborg	11	3	1	7	-7	-1.0	10
10	Hvidovre IF	12	2	3	7	-11	-11.7	9
11	Lyngby	12	2	1	9	-19	-6.9	7
12	Viborg	12	1	3	8	-16	-4.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.