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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Heerenveen

S T T U U

2–3

Full-time

Utrecht

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 34%

32%

36%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

71%

36%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,99 xG 1,32

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 11. · Utrecht 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	29	25	3	1	+72	+59.8	78
2	Feyenoord	29	21	6	2	+53	+58.1	69
3	Twente	29	18	6	5	+27	+18.4	60
4	AZ Alkmaar	29	15	7	7	+23	+13.5	52
5	Nijmegen	28	12	9	7	+15	-13.6	45
6	Ajax	29	12	9	8	+6	+7.3	45
7	Go Ahead Eagles	28	11	8	9	+6	-4.9	41
8	Utrecht	28	10	9	9	+0	-4.6	39
9	Sparta Rotterdam	29	10	7	12	+1	-6.8	37
10	For Sittard	29	9	8	12	-17	+2.0	35
11	Heerenveen	28	9	6	13	-7	-3.6	33
12	Almere City	29	7	12	10	-17	-13.7	33
13	Heracles	29	9	5	15	-20	-20.8	32
14	Zwolle	29	8	7	14	-18	-12.1	31
15	Waalwijk	29	6	6	17	-20	-11.6	24
16	Excelsior	29	4	10	15	-24	-17.1	22
17	Volendam	29	4	7	18	-40	-28.3	19
18	Vitesse	29	4	5	20	-40	-22.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	13	1	0	+33	+32.2	40
2	Twente	15	12	1	2	+16	+14.8	37
3	Feyenoord	15	11	3	1	+32	+32.7	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+21	+15.5	29
5	Ajax	14	7	5	2	+14	+9.4	26
6	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+14	+2.5	26
7	Go Ahead Eagles	15	7	4	4	+13	+5.1	25
8	For Sittard	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.4	25
9	Utrecht	14	6	5	3	+5	+3.1	23
10	Heerenveen	14	6	3	5	+5	+6.6	21
11	Heracles	14	6	3	5	-3	-5.9	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	5	6	-2	+1.9	17
13	Waalwijk	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.9	16
14	Almere City	14	3	6	5	-8	-4.6	15
15	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-13	+2.0	15
16	Excelsior	14	2	7	5	-6	-1.5	13
17	Volendam	15	3	2	10	-24	-8.9	11
18	Vitesse	15	1	5	9	-16	-5.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	2	1	+39	+27.7	38
2	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+21	+25.4	33
3	Twente	14	6	5	3	+11	+3.6	23
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+2	-2.0	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	2	6	+3	-8.7	20
6	Nijmegen	15	4	7	4	+1	-16.1	19
7	Ajax	15	5	4	6	-8	-2.1	19
8	Almere City	15	4	6	5	-9	-9.1	18
9	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-5	-14.1	16
10	Utrecht	14	4	4	6	-5	-7.7	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-7	-10.0	16
12	Heerenveen	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.2	12
13	Heracles	15	3	2	10	-17	-14.9	11
14	For Sittard	15	2	4	9	-25	-12.5	10
15	Excelsior	15	2	3	10	-18	-15.6	9
16	Vitesse	14	3	0	11	-24	-16.6	9
17	Waalwijk	14	2	2	10	-15	-9.7	8
18	Volendam	14	1	5	8	-16	-19.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.