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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Arsenal

S U T T S

5–0

Full-time

Chelsea

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,7

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/31 matches

Win Ø 56%

70%

42%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

61%

68%

Both score Ø 55%

42%

68%

Average goals

3,1

3,6

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,42 xG 1,68

44% Possession 56%

27 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 1

10 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 1. · Chelsea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	33	23	5	5	+51	+42.6	74
2	Liverpool	33	22	8	3	+43	+36.4	74
3	Man City	32	22	7	3	+44	+37.5	73
4	Aston Villa	34	20	6	8	+21	+7.0	66
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Newcastle	32	15	5	12	+17	+7.6	50
7	Man United	32	15	5	12	-1	-12.2	50
8	West Ham	34	13	9	12	-9	-16.0	48
9	Chelsea	31	13	8	10	+9	+14.3	47
10	Brighton	32	11	11	10	+2	+1.5	44
11	Wolves	33	12	7	14	-7	-11.9	43
12	Fulham	34	12	6	16	-4	-9.3	42
13	Bournemouth	33	11	9	13	-12	-2.4	42
14	Everton	33	10	8	15	-14	-0.4	38
15	Crystal Palace	33	9	9	15	-14	-8.1	36
16	Brentford	34	9	8	17	-7	+5.6	35
17	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-18	-4.4	30
18	Luton	34	6	7	21	-28	-33.4	25
19	Burnley	34	5	8	21	-32	-25.3	23
20	Sheffield United	33	3	7	23	-57	-31.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+23	+23.8	38
4	Aston Villa	17	12	2	3	+20	+12.2	38
5	Newcastle	17	11	3	3	+23	+19.4	36
6	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
7	Fulham	17	9	1	7	+11	+2.8	28
8	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+10	+16.8	28
9	Brighton	15	7	6	2	+9	+5.2	27
10	Man United	15	8	2	5	+1	-0.3	26
11	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+1	-5.5	25
12	Wolves	16	7	3	6	-2	-5.5	24
13	Bournemouth	17	6	6	5	-3	+2.5	24
14	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
15	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	+0	+1.9	20
16	Crystal Palace	16	5	4	7	+0	+2.9	19
17	Everton	16	5	4	7	+0	+8.8	19
18	Luton	17	4	3	10	-7	-5.6	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	17	2	4	11	-33	-12.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+28	+18.8	36
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
3	Liverpool	16	9	5	2	+15	+4.8	32
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	17	7	2	8	-10	-10.6	23
8	Chelsea	15	5	4	6	-1	-2.4	19
9	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
10	Everton	17	5	4	8	-14	-9.2	19
11	Bournemouth	16	5	3	8	-9	-5.0	18
12	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-7	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	17	4	5	8	-14	-11.0	17
14	Brentford	17	4	2	11	-4	+0.8	14
15	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-6	-11.8	14
16	Fulham	17	3	5	9	-15	-12.1	14
17	Burnley	17	3	4	10	-12	-21.2	13
18	Nott'm Forest	17	2	4	11	-18	-6.3	10
19	Luton	17	2	4	11	-21	-27.8	10
20	Sheffield United	16	1	3	12	-24	-19.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.