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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Hartmann

RB Leipzig

U S S T T

2–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 49%

60%

38%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

60%

69%

Both score Ø 58%

47%

69%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,48 xG 0,17

64% Possession 36%

21 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	14	2	0	+51	+36.0	44
2	Dortmund	17	10	6	1	+17	+10.6	36
3	Stuttgart	17	10	2	5	+7	+3.9	32
4	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+11	+7.3	29
5	Leverkusen	16	9	2	5	+10	+9.4	29
6	Hoffenheim	15	8	3	4	+9	+0.4	27
7	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	5	5	-1	+0.1	26
8	Freiburg	16	6	5	5	+0	+6.5	23
9	Union Berlin	16	6	4	6	-3	-0.2	22
10	M'gladbach	16	5	4	7	-2	-1.0	19
11	Wolfsburg	17	5	3	9	-11	-6.2	18
12	FC Koln	16	4	5	7	-2	-2.1	17
13	Werder Bremen	16	4	5	7	-13	-10.6	17
14	Hamburg	16	4	4	8	-10	-6.1	16
15	Augsburg	16	4	2	10	-15	-11.1	14
16	Mainz	17	2	6	9	-12	-13.5	12
17	St Pauli	16	3	3	10	-14	-12.1	12
18	Heidenheim	17	3	3	11	-22	-11.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+32	+18.9	25
2	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+12	+7.6	20
3	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+2	+1.5	19
4	RB Leipzig	7	6	0	1	+13	+6.3	18
5	Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+9	+9.7	16
6	Freiburg	8	4	3	1	+6	+9.0	15
7	Hamburg	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.5	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+3	+3.3	14
9	Union Berlin	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.3	13
10	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-4	+0.6	11
12	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.7	10
13	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
14	Heidenheim	9	2	3	4	-9	-7.0	9
15	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	+3	+3.0	8
16	Wolfsburg	9	2	2	5	-5	-3.1	8
17	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
18	Mainz	9	1	3	5	-5	-2.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+19	+17.2	19
2	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.0	16
3	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
4	Stuttgart	9	4	1	4	+5	+2.4	13
5	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.3	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-4	-3.3	12
7	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
8	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.8	10
9	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-3.1	10
10	FC Koln	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.1	9
11	Union Berlin	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
12	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-6	-2.6	8
13	Mainz	8	1	3	4	-7	-10.8	6
14	Werder Bremen	9	1	3	5	-9	-11.2	6
15	St Pauli	9	1	2	6	-7	-8.8	5
16	Augsburg	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.4	4
17	Heidenheim	8	1	0	7	-13	-4.2	3
18	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-14	-7.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.