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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Bournemouth

U U U T U

2–3

Full-time

Arsenal

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 50%

26%

74%

Points per game

1,2

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

63%

47%

Both score Ø 55%

63%

47%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,8

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,43 xG 1,13

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 15. · Arsenal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.9	45
2	Aston Villa	20	13	3	4	+9	-5.2	42
3	Man City	19	13	2	4	+26	+16.6	41
4	Liverpool	19	10	3	6	+4	+8.2	33
5	Chelsea	19	8	6	5	+11	+5.6	30
6	Man United	19	8	6	5	+4	+8.4	30
7	Sunderland	19	7	8	4	+2	-10.6	29
8	Brighton	20	7	7	6	+3	+4.1	28
9	Everton	19	8	4	7	+0	-5.5	28
10	Brentford	19	8	3	8	+2	+2.8	27
11	Crystal Palace	19	7	6	6	+1	+7.5	27
12	Fulham	19	8	3	8	-1	-3.2	27
13	Tottenham	19	7	5	7	+4	-7.3	26
14	Newcastle	19	7	5	7	+2	+6.0	26
15	Bournemouth	19	5	8	6	-6	+1.1	23
16	Leeds	19	5	6	8	-7	+0.3	21
17	Nott'm Forest	20	5	3	12	-14	-5.3	18
18	West Ham	20	3	5	12	-20	-14.4	14
19	Burnley	20	3	3	14	-19	-21.5	12
20	Wolves	20	1	3	16	-26	-9.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	1	0	+21	+13.7	28
2	Aston Villa	10	8	1	1	+10	-0.5	25
3	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
4	Brentford	10	6	3	1	+10	+4.7	21
5	Sunderland	10	5	5	0	+8	-3.7	20
6	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
7	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.0	19
8	Man United	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.1	18
9	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
10	Fulham	9	5	1	3	+5	+1.0	16
11	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
12	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+5	+7.3	15
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.3	14
15	Crystal Palace	10	2	5	3	-2	+7.4	11
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.4	7
20	Wolves	10	1	1	8	-13	-2.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+4	-6.8	18
2	Man City	10	5	2	3	+7	+5.0	17
3	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+4	+8.1	17
4	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	-1	-4.7	17
5	Crystal Palace	9	5	1	3	+3	+0.2	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
7	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
8	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
9	Man United	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.7	12
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
12	Brighton	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.1	9
13	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
14	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-9	-7.6	8
15	West Ham	10	1	4	5	-9	-9.0	7
16	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
17	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
18	Leeds	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.0	6
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-14	-13.4	4
20	Wolves	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.