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League Cup

Referee: Robert Madley

Swansea

S U U S U

3–2

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Grimsby	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
2	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
3	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
4	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
5	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
6	Cambridge United	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
7	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
8	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
9	Reading	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
10	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
12	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
13	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
14	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
15	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.8	4
16	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
17	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
18	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
19	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
20	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
25	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
27	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
28	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
29	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
30	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
31	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
32	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
33	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
34	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
35	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
36	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
37	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
38	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
39	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
40	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
41	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
42	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
45	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
49	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
51	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
52	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
53	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
54	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
55	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
56	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
57	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
58	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
59	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
61	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
62	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
63	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
64	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
65	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
66	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
67	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
68	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
69	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
70	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
71	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
72	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
73	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
74	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
75	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
76	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
77	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
78	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
79	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
80	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
81	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
82	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
83	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
84	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
85	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
3	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
4	Grimsby	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
6	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
8	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
13	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
16	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
20	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
21	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
22	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
23	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
24	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
25	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
26	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
27	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
29	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
33	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
34	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
35	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
36	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
38	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
39	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
40	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
41	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
43	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
44	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
45	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
46	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
47	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
49	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
50	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
51	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
2	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
3	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
4	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
5	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
6	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
7	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
8	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
9	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
11	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
12	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
13	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
14	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
16	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
17	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
19	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
20	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
21	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
22	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
28	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
30	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
31	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
32	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
33	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
34	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
35	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
36	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
38	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
39	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
40	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
41	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
43	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
44	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
45	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
46	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
47	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
48	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
50	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
51	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
52	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.