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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Preston

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Luton

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

This season — Championship · 30/28 matches

Win Ø 42%

37%

46%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

39%

Both score Ø 40%

37%

43%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 10

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 13. · Luton 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	31	20	9	2	+35	69
2	Sheffield United	30	18	7	5	+27	61
3	Middlesbrough	30	15	6	9	+15	51
4	Sunderland	30	13	8	9	+13	47
5	Luton	28	13	8	7	+8	47
6	Watford	32	12	11	9	+3	47
7	Millwall	30	13	7	10	+6	46
8	Norwich	31	13	6	12	+7	45
9	Blackburn	30	14	3	13	-4	45
10	West Brom	30	12	8	10	+7	44
11	Hull	32	11	8	13	-9	41
12	Reading	31	12	5	14	-11	41
13	Preston	30	11	7	12	-9	40
14	Bristol City	30	10	9	11	+1	39
15	Swansea	30	10	9	11	-2	39
16	QPR	32	10	9	13	-10	39
17	Coventry	29	10	8	11	-1	38
18	Birmingham	31	10	8	13	-4	38
19	Stoke	30	9	7	14	-5	34
20	Rotherham	31	7	12	12	-8	33
21	Cardiff	32	8	8	16	-12	32
22	Wigan	30	7	8	15	-21	29
23	Huddersfield	30	7	7	16	-11	28
24	Blackpool	30	6	10	14	-15	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	12	5	0	+23	41
2	Sheffield United	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Reading	15	9	3	3	+7	30
4	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
5	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+12	28
6	Blackburn	14	9	1	4	+7	28
7	Watford	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	West Brom	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	Coventry	15	7	4	4	+5	25
10	Sunderland	15	6	4	5	+4	22
11	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	+3	22
12	Norwich	16	6	4	6	+2	22
13	Luton	14	5	6	3	+4	21
14	Hull	16	6	3	7	-5	21
15	Rotherham	14	5	5	4	+7	20
16	Swansea	14	6	2	6	+3	20
17	Birmingham	17	5	5	7	+0	20
18	QPR	16	5	4	7	-5	19
19	Huddersfield	15	5	3	7	-1	18
20	Cardiff	16	4	5	7	-4	17
21	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-1	16
22	Blackpool	15	3	5	7	-5	14
23	Preston	15	3	4	8	-11	13
24	Wigan	16	3	3	10	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+12	28
2	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+7	28
3	Preston	15	8	3	4	+2	27
4	Luton	14	8	2	4	+4	26
5	Sunderland	15	7	4	4	+9	25
6	Norwich	15	7	2	6	+5	23
7	Middlesbrough	15	7	1	7	+4	22
8	Watford	17	5	7	5	-4	22
9	Hull	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	QPR	16	5	5	6	-5	20
11	West Brom	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Swansea	16	4	7	5	-5	19
13	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-4	18
14	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-4	18
15	Millwall	16	5	3	8	-6	18
16	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
17	Wigan	14	4	5	5	-3	17
18	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	-11	17
19	Cardiff	16	4	3	9	-8	15
20	Blackpool	15	3	5	7	-10	14
21	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-6	13
22	Rotherham	17	2	7	8	-15	13
23	Reading	16	3	2	11	-18	11
24	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-10	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.