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Premier League

Referee: Andy Madley

Norwich

T T S T T

1–5

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,6

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

2,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 12

8 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 17. · Aston Villa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Man City	7	5	1	1	+20	16
3	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Arsenal	7	3	3	1	+1	12
5	West Ham	7	3	3	1	+1	12
6	Tottenham	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Bournemouth	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Crystal Palace	7	3	2	2	-1	11
10	Man United	7	2	3	2	+2	9
11	Burnley	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	+0	8
14	Wolves	7	1	4	2	-2	7
15	Southampton	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Everton	7	2	1	4	-6	7
17	Norwich	7	2	0	5	-7	6
18	Aston Villa	7	1	2	4	-3	5
19	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	-9	5
20	Watford	7	0	2	5	-16	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Man City	3	2	1	0	+12	7
6	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	West Ham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Everton	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Brighton	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
17	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	West Ham	4	1	3	0	+2	6
4	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Arsenal	4	1	2	1	-1	5
9	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Burnley	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	-8	3
14	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Man United	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Watford	4	0	1	3	-11	1
19	Aston Villa	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.