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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Aston Villa

S S T S S

2–0

Full-time

Norwich

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

This season — Championship · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 38%

34%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

29%

68%

Both score Ø 56%

45%

66%

Average goals

2,1

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

31% Possession 69%

13 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Norwich 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	38	24	6	8	+38	78
2	Brighton	38	23	8	7	+30	77
3	Leeds	38	21	6	11	+16	69
4	Huddersfield	34	21	5	8	+6	68
5	Reading	35	19	7	9	+7	64
6	Fulham	36	15	13	8	+15	58
7	Norwich	38	16	9	13	+9	57
8	Preston	38	15	12	11	+6	57
9	Sheffield Weds	37	16	9	12	+6	57
10	Derby	39	15	11	13	+4	56
11	Barnsley	39	14	10	15	+0	52
12	Aston Villa	38	13	12	13	+0	51
13	Cardiff	38	14	9	15	-1	51
14	Brentford	38	14	8	16	+3	50
15	QPR	39	14	8	17	-6	50
16	Wolves	37	12	9	16	-2	45
17	Ipswich	38	10	15	13	-9	45
18	Birmingham	38	11	12	15	-16	45
19	Bristol City	38	11	8	19	-3	41
20	Nott'm Forest	38	11	8	19	-11	41
21	Burton Albion	38	10	11	17	-14	41
22	Blackburn	38	9	13	16	-11	40
23	Wigan	38	8	10	20	-13	34
24	Rotherham	38	4	5	29	-54	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	19	14	3	2	+29	45
2	Leeds	20	13	3	4	+14	42
3	Norwich	19	12	4	3	+23	40
4	Reading	18	11	5	2	+13	38
5	Huddersfield	16	12	2	2	+11	38
6	Newcastle	18	11	2	5	+18	35
7	Sheffield Weds	18	11	2	5	+10	35
8	Preston	19	10	4	5	+11	34
9	Aston Villa	18	9	7	2	+11	34
10	Derby	20	9	7	4	+9	34
11	Nott'm Forest	19	9	4	6	+7	31
12	Cardiff	20	9	4	7	+5	31
13	Fulham	19	7	7	5	+4	28
14	Bristol City	19	8	4	7	+4	28
15	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+0	28
16	QPR	20	8	4	8	-2	28
17	Ipswich	19	6	9	4	+2	27
18	Burton Albion	19	8	3	8	+0	27
19	Brentford	18	7	5	6	+9	26
20	Barnsley	20	6	8	6	-1	26
21	Birmingham	20	7	5	8	-5	26
22	Wolves	17	5	3	9	-6	18
23	Rotherham	18	4	4	10	-9	16
24	Wigan	19	3	6	10	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	20	13	4	3	+20	43
2	Brighton	19	9	5	5	+1	32
3	Fulham	17	8	6	3	+11	30
4	Huddersfield	18	9	3	6	-5	30
5	Wolves	20	7	6	7	+4	27
6	Leeds	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Barnsley	19	8	2	9	+1	26
8	Reading	17	8	2	7	-6	26
9	Brentford	20	7	3	10	-6	24
10	Preston	19	5	8	6	-5	23
11	QPR	19	6	4	9	-4	22
12	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-4	22
13	Derby	19	6	4	9	-5	22
14	Cardiff	18	5	5	8	-6	20
15	Wigan	19	5	4	10	-4	19
16	Birmingham	18	4	7	7	-11	19
17	Ipswich	19	4	6	9	-11	18
18	Aston Villa	20	4	5	11	-11	17
19	Norwich	19	4	5	10	-14	17
20	Burton Albion	19	2	8	9	-14	14
21	Bristol City	19	3	4	12	-7	13
22	Blackburn	18	2	6	10	-11	12
23	Nott'm Forest	19	2	4	13	-18	10
24	Rotherham	20	0	1	19	-45	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.