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2. Bundesliga

St Pauli

U S T S T

4–1

Full-time

Ingolstadt

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Ingolstadt

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,7

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

20 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 1

8 Corners 3

5 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 9. · Ingolstadt 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Regensburg	7	4	2	1	+9	14
2	Nurnberg	7	3	4	0	+4	13
3	Karlsruhe	7	3	3	1	+5	12
4	Hamburg	7	3	3	1	+4	12
5	Heidenheim	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Paderborn	6	3	2	1	+7	11
7	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Dresden	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	St Pauli	6	3	1	2	+3	10
10	Schalke 04	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Hannover	7	3	1	3	-4	10
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Darmstadt	6	2	1	3	+3	7
14	Hansa Rostock	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Holstein Kiel	7	1	2	4	-9	5
16	Sandhausen	7	1	1	5	-8	4
17	Ingolstadt	6	1	1	4	-10	4
18	Erzgebirge Aue	6	0	3	3	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nurnberg	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	St Pauli	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Regensburg	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Darmstadt	3	2	0	1	+7	6
5	Dresden	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Heidenheim	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Hannover	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	Karlsruhe	3	1	2	0	+3	5
9	Hamburg	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Paderborn	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Schalke 04	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Hansa Rostock	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Holstein Kiel	4	1	0	3	-6	3
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Erzgebirge Aue	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Ingolstadt	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Sandhausen	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Hamburg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
4	Regensburg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Karlsruhe	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Dresden	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Hansa Rostock	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Hannover	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Nurnberg	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Sandhausen	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Ingolstadt	3	1	0	2	-6	3
15	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Erzgebirge Aue	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	St Pauli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Darmstadt	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.