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Serie A

Referee: S Sozza

Roma

S T U T T

5–0

Full-time

Crotone

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 31%

47%

15%

Points per game

1,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

65%

74%

Both score Ø 59%

53%

65%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,6

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 7

13 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 8. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	35	26	7	2	+49	85
2	Atalanta	35	21	9	5	+42	72
3	Napoli	35	22	4	9	+39	70
4	Juventus	34	20	9	5	+36	69
5	Milan	34	21	6	7	+21	69
6	Lazio	34	20	4	10	+9	64
7	Sassuolo	35	15	11	9	+6	56
8	Roma	34	16	7	11	+5	55
9	Sampdoria	35	13	6	16	-6	45
10	Verona	35	11	10	14	-1	43
11	Udinese	35	10	10	15	-7	40
12	Bologna	35	10	10	15	-9	40
13	Fiorentina	35	9	11	15	-10	38
14	Genoa	35	8	12	15	-13	36
15	Torino	34	7	14	13	-9	35
16	Cagliari	35	9	8	18	-15	35
17	Spezia	35	8	10	17	-23	34
18	Benevento	35	7	10	18	-33	31
19	Parma	35	3	11	21	-38	20
20	Crotone	34	5	3	26	-43	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	15	1	1	+29	46
2	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Lazio	17	12	2	3	+12	38
4	Roma	17	11	4	2	+17	37
5	Napoli	17	11	3	3	+26	36
6	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+25	36
7	Milan	18	8	5	5	+7	29
8	Bologna	17	7	5	5	+5	26
9	Sassuolo	17	6	8	3	+4	26
10	Sampdoria	17	8	2	7	+3	26
11	Fiorentina	18	6	6	6	+2	24
12	Verona	18	6	5	7	+0	23
13	Genoa	18	5	7	6	+0	22
14	Udinese	18	5	4	9	-4	19
15	Spezia	17	4	6	7	-8	18
16	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-9	18
17	Torino	17	3	8	6	-4	17
18	Crotone	17	4	1	12	-13	13
19	Benevento	18	2	6	10	-20	12
20	Parma	18	2	5	11	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	16	13	1	2	+14	40
2	Inter	18	11	6	1	+20	39
3	Atalanta	18	10	6	2	+17	36
4	Napoli	18	11	1	6	+13	34
5	Sassuolo	18	9	3	6	+2	30
6	Juventus	17	7	7	3	+12	28
7	Lazio	17	8	2	7	-3	26
8	Udinese	17	5	6	6	-3	21
9	Verona	17	5	5	7	-1	20
10	Sampdoria	18	5	4	9	-9	19
11	Benevento	17	5	4	8	-13	19
12	Torino	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Roma	17	5	3	9	-12	18
14	Cagliari	18	4	5	9	-6	17
15	Spezia	18	4	4	10	-15	16
16	Fiorentina	17	3	5	9	-12	14
17	Genoa	17	3	5	9	-13	14
18	Bologna	18	3	5	10	-14	14
19	Parma	17	1	6	10	-17	9
20	Crotone	17	1	2	14	-30	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.