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Championship
Referee: J Busby
Luton
T S S T S
0–5
Full-time
Birmingham
T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Birmingham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,7
0,8
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-1,2
This season — Championship · 4/3 matches
Win Ø 54%
75%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
75%
0%
Both score Ø 13%
25%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,0
Scored
2,3
0,3
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

47% Possession 53%
11 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luton 1. · Birmingham 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Luton 4 3 0 1 +6 9
2 QPR 4 2 2 0 +4 8
3 West Brom 3 2 1 0 +5 7
4 Fulham 3 2 1 0 +5 7
5 Bournemouth 3 2 1 0 +3 7
6 Stoke 3 2 1 0 +3 7
7 Blackburn 3 2 1 0 +2 7
8 Cardiff 4 1 3 0 +2 6
9 Coventry 3 2 0 1 +1 6
10 Barnsley 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Middlesbrough 3 1 1 1 +0 4
12 Bristol City 4 1 1 2 -1 4
13 Derby 4 1 1 2 -1 4
14 Birmingham 3 1 1 1 -1 4
15 Peterborough 3 1 1 1 -2 4
16 Swansea 4 1 1 2 -2 4
17 Peterboro 4 1 1 2 -3 4
18 Huddersfield 3 1 1 1 -3 4
19 Reading 3 1 0 2 -1 3
20 Hull 3 1 0 2 -1 3
21 Preston 4 1 0 3 -4 3
22 Millwall 3 0 2 1 -1 2
23 Blackpool 3 0 1 2 -3 1
24 Sheffield United 3 0 1 2 -5 1
25 Nott'm Forest 3 0 0 3 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luton Birmingham
4′
🟨 Marc Roberts
7′
M. Roberts 0–1
Jérémie Bela
26′
S. Hogan 0–2
T. Chong
G. Rea 🔁
↦ P. Kioso
28′
Glen Rea 🟨
34′
Half-time 0–2
F. Onyedinma 🔁
↦ A. Campbell
46′
47′
S. Hogan 0–3
C. Jerome 🔁
↦ H. Cornick
57′
61′
🔁 C. Aneke
↦ S. Hogan
70′
🔁 Iván Sánchez
↦ T. Chong
81′
🔁 G. Gardner
↦ L. Jutkiewicz
84′
G. Gardner 0–4
M. Colin
88′
C. Aneke 0–5
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Luton

3-4-1-2
12 S. Sluga G
15 T. Lockyer D
29 A. Bell M
2 J. Bree M
20 P. Kioso D
4 K. Naismith D
17 P. Ruddock M
22 A. Campbell M
7 H. Cornick F
11 E. Adebayo F
26 A. Muskwe F
Bench (7)
6 G. Rea
24 F. Onyedinma
35 C. Jerome
10 E. Lee
32 G. Osho
21 H. Isted
14 Carlos Gomes

Coach: N. Jones

Birmingham

3-4-3
13 M. Šarkić G
12 H. Dean D
2 M. Colin M
4 M. Roberts D
3 K. Pedersen D
11 Jérémie Bela M
34 I. Šunjić M
6 R. Woods M
7 T. Chong F
10 L. Jutkiewicz F
9 S. Hogan F
Bench (7)
15 C. Aneke
17 Iván Sánchez
20 G. Gardner
14 J. Leko
5 G. Friend
27 C. Trueman
23 J. Familia-Castillo

Coach: L. Bowyer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,10
U
3,34
B ✓
3,62
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,24
U2,5
1,65
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Busby · 113 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.