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Championship

Referee: G Scott

Luton

T T U T T

1–2

Full-time

Birmingham

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

4,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,3

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

23%

31%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

85%

46%

Both score Ø 60%

65%

54%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

9 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Luton 24. · Birmingham 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	26	15	7	4	+22	52
2	West Brom	26	14	10	2	+20	52
3	Nott'm Forest	25	12	7	6	+9	43
4	Fulham	24	12	5	7	+11	41
5	Swansea	24	11	8	5	+7	41
6	Millwall	26	10	10	6	+2	40
7	Sheffield Weds	26	11	6	9	+11	39
8	Hull	26	11	6	9	+6	39
9	Preston	26	11	6	9	+4	39
10	Bristol City	26	10	8	8	-1	38
11	Brentford	24	11	4	9	+17	37
12	Blackburn	26	10	6	10	+0	36
13	Cardiff	25	9	9	7	-2	36
14	Reading	25	10	5	10	+5	35
15	QPR	27	10	5	12	-6	35
16	Middlesbrough	26	8	9	9	-6	33
17	Derby	26	8	9	9	-8	33
18	Birmingham	26	8	5	13	-12	29
19	Charlton	26	7	7	12	-3	28
20	Huddersfield	26	7	7	12	-12	28
21	Stoke	26	7	3	16	-9	24
22	Wigan	26	5	8	13	-15	23
23	Barnsley	26	4	9	13	-16	21
24	Luton	26	6	3	17	-24	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	14	9	2	3	+12	29
2	Fulham	14	8	2	4	+9	26
3	Derby	14	7	5	2	+7	26
4	Leeds	12	7	4	1	+11	25
5	Millwall	13	7	4	2	+7	25
6	West Brom	13	6	6	1	+11	24
7	Cardiff	11	7	3	1	+9	24
8	Blackburn	13	6	5	2	+5	23
9	Sheffield Weds	13	6	4	3	+4	22
10	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+1	22
11	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+13	21
12	Swansea	13	6	3	4	+5	21
13	Hull	13	6	2	5	+5	20
14	Nott'm Forest	12	6	2	4	+1	20
15	QPR	14	5	4	5	+1	19
16	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	+1	19
17	Charlton	13	5	3	5	+2	18
18	Reading	12	6	0	6	+2	18
19	Birmingham	13	5	2	6	-1	17
20	Wigan	12	4	4	4	-3	16
21	Huddersfield	14	4	4	6	-5	16
22	Luton	12	4	3	5	-1	15
23	Barnsley	13	3	6	4	-3	15
24	Stoke	13	4	2	7	-3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	8	4	1	+9	28
2	Leeds	14	8	3	3	+11	27
3	Nott'm Forest	13	6	5	2	+8	23
4	Swansea	11	5	5	1	+2	20
5	Hull	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	-2	19
7	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	+7	17
8	Reading	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Brentford	13	5	1	7	+4	16
10	QPR	13	5	1	7	-7	16
11	Fulham	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Millwall	13	3	6	4	-5	15
13	Blackburn	13	4	1	8	-5	13
14	Huddersfield	12	3	3	6	-7	12
15	Cardiff	14	2	6	6	-11	12
16	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Middlesbrough	13	2	5	6	-7	11
18	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-5	10
19	Stoke	13	3	1	9	-6	10
20	Preston	12	2	4	6	-8	10
21	Wigan	14	1	4	9	-12	7
22	Derby	12	1	4	7	-15	7
23	Barnsley	13	1	3	9	-13	6
24	Luton	14	2	0	12	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.