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Premier League

Referee: M Dean

Newcastle

T U S S U

0–2

Full-time

Arsenal

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 33%

27%

39%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

55%

Both score Ø 52%

58%

45%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

5 Shots 19

1 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 17. · Arsenal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	34	25	5	4	+47	80
2	Man United	33	19	10	4	+29	67
3	Leicester	34	19	6	9	+22	63
4	Chelsea	34	17	10	7	+22	61
5	West Ham	33	16	7	10	+10	55
6	Liverpool	33	15	9	9	+16	54
7	Tottenham	33	15	8	10	+18	53
8	Everton	33	15	7	11	+3	52
9	Aston Villa	33	14	6	13	+10	48
10	Leeds	34	14	5	15	-2	47
11	Arsenal	33	13	7	13	+7	46
12	Wolves	33	11	8	14	-13	41
13	Crystal Palace	33	10	8	15	-22	38
14	Brighton	34	8	13	13	-4	37
15	Southampton	33	10	7	16	-18	37
16	Burnley	33	9	9	15	-15	36
17	Newcastle	33	9	9	15	-18	36
18	Fulham	34	5	12	17	-20	27
19	West Brom	33	5	10	18	-34	25
20	Sheffield United	33	5	2	26	-38	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	12	2	3	+22	38
2	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Man United	16	9	3	4	+13	30
4	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+13	30
5	Leicester	17	9	1	7	+8	28
6	Tottenham	16	8	3	5	+10	27
7	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+5	27
8	Leeds	17	6	5	6	+3	23
9	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-1	22
10	Wolves	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+3	21
12	Southampton	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Newcastle	16	5	5	6	-5	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-4	19
16	Burnley	16	4	6	6	-5	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	-1	17
18	West Brom	16	3	5	8	-21	14
19	Sheffield United	17	4	1	12	-14	13
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	17	10	7	0	+16	37
3	Leicester	17	10	5	2	+14	35
4	Everton	16	10	3	3	+7	33
5	Chelsea	17	9	4	4	+9	31
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+7	27
8	Tottenham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
9	Arsenal	16	7	3	6	+8	24
10	West Ham	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Leeds	17	8	0	9	-5	24
12	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-3	20
13	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Burnley	17	5	3	9	-10	18
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-11	18
16	Fulham	17	3	8	6	-5	17
17	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
18	Southampton	17	4	4	9	-19	16
19	West Brom	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Sheffield United	16	1	1	14	-24	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.