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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Chelsea

S T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Norwich

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,0

0,2

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,3

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 33%

51%

14%

Points per game

1,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

69%

51%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

43%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 2

6 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Norwich 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	30	3	2	+49	93
2	Man City	35	23	3	9	+57	72
3	Chelsea	35	18	6	11	+14	60
4	Leicester	35	17	8	10	+29	59
5	Man United	35	16	11	8	+26	59
6	Wolves	35	14	13	8	+11	55
7	Sheffield United	35	14	12	9	+5	54
8	Tottenham	35	14	10	11	+9	52
9	Arsenal	35	12	14	9	+7	50
10	Burnley	35	14	8	13	-8	50
11	Everton	35	12	9	14	-11	45
12	Southampton	35	13	6	16	-13	45
13	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
14	Crystal Palace	35	11	9	15	-15	42
15	Brighton	35	8	12	15	-16	36
16	West Ham	35	9	7	19	-15	34
17	Watford	35	8	10	17	-21	34
18	Bournemouth	35	8	7	20	-24	31
19	Aston Villa	35	8	6	21	-27	30
20	Norwich	35	5	6	24	-41	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	17	1	0	+34	52
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+38	41
3	Man United	18	10	6	2	+23	36
4	Tottenham	18	11	3	4	+16	36
5	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
6	Sheffield United	18	10	3	5	+10	33
7	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+11	30
8	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
9	Everton	17	8	6	3	+5	30
10	Wolves	18	7	7	4	+6	28
11	Burnley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
12	Newcastle	17	6	8	3	+3	26
13	Watford	18	6	6	6	-1	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
15	Bournemouth	18	5	6	7	-6	21
16	Brighton	18	5	6	7	-7	21
17	Aston Villa	18	6	3	9	-9	21
18	West Ham	17	5	3	9	-5	18
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	18	4	3	11	-16	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	2	2	+15	41
2	Man City	18	10	1	7	+19	31
3	Chelsea	18	9	3	6	+3	30
4	Southampton	18	8	4	6	+3	28
5	Wolves	17	7	6	4	+5	27
6	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+11	25
7	Man United	17	6	5	6	+3	23
8	Burnley	18	6	5	7	-10	23
9	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
10	Arsenal	18	4	8	6	-3	20
11	Crystal Palace	18	5	5	8	-12	20
12	Newcastle	18	5	2	11	-19	17
13	Tottenham	17	3	7	7	-7	16
14	West Ham	18	4	4	10	-10	16
15	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
16	Everton	18	4	3	11	-16	15
17	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.