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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Nott'm Forest

T S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Luton

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

This season — Championship · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 34%

46%

22%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

42%

85%

Both score Ø 61%

54%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

22 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 5. · Luton 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	27	14	11	2	+20	53
2	Leeds	28	15	7	6	+19	52
3	Fulham	26	14	5	7	+13	47
4	Swansea	26	12	9	5	+8	45
5	Nott'm Forest	26	12	8	6	+9	44
6	Millwall	28	11	11	6	+4	44
7	Bristol City	28	12	8	8	+2	44
8	Preston	28	12	7	9	+5	43
9	Sheffield Weds	28	12	6	10	+8	42
10	Blackburn	28	11	7	10	+5	40
11	Hull	28	11	6	11	+4	39
12	Brentford	25	11	5	9	+17	38
13	Cardiff	27	9	11	7	-2	38
14	QPR	28	11	5	12	-5	38
15	Derby	28	9	10	9	-7	37
16	Reading	27	10	6	11	+3	36
17	Middlesbrough	28	8	10	10	-7	34
18	Birmingham	28	9	6	13	-11	33
19	Charlton	28	7	8	13	-4	29
20	Huddersfield	28	7	8	13	-13	29
21	Stoke	27	7	4	16	-9	25
22	Barnsley	28	5	9	14	-16	24
23	Wigan	28	5	8	15	-18	23
24	Luton	27	6	3	18	-25	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	15	10	2	3	+13	32
2	Fulham	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Derby	15	8	5	2	+8	29
4	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+9	28
5	Leeds	13	7	4	2	+9	25
6	Cardiff	12	7	4	1	+9	25
7	West Brom	13	6	6	1	+11	24
8	Swansea	14	7	3	4	+6	24
9	Blackburn	14	6	6	2	+5	24
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+1	23
11	QPR	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+2	22
13	Sheffield Weds	14	6	4	4	-1	22
14	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+13	21
15	Hull	14	6	2	6	+4	20
16	Nott'm Forest	12	6	2	4	+1	20
17	Charlton	14	5	4	5	+2	19
18	Reading	13	6	1	6	+2	19
19	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-1	18
20	Barnsley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
21	Huddersfield	15	4	5	6	-5	17
22	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-5	16
23	Luton	13	4	3	6	-2	15
24	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	14	8	5	1	+9	29
2	Leeds	15	8	3	4	+10	27
3	Nott'm Forest	14	6	6	2	+8	24
4	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+0	22
5	Swansea	12	5	6	1	+2	21
6	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	+9	20
7	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
8	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Brentford	14	5	2	7	+4	17
10	Reading	14	4	5	5	+1	17
11	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	+0	16
12	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-5	16
13	QPR	13	5	1	7	-7	16
14	Birmingham	14	4	3	7	-10	15
15	Cardiff	15	2	7	6	-11	13
16	Huddersfield	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Middlesbrough	14	2	5	7	-8	11
18	Preston	13	2	5	6	-8	11
19	Charlton	14	2	4	8	-6	10
20	Stoke	13	3	1	9	-6	10
21	Derby	13	1	5	7	-15	8
22	Wigan	15	1	4	10	-13	7
23	Barnsley	14	1	3	10	-14	6
24	Luton	14	2	0	12	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.