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Championship

Referee: R Jones

Swansea

U U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Cardiff

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

58%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

19 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 8. · Cardiff 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	14	7	6	1	+9	27
2	Preston	14	7	4	3	+11	25
3	Leeds	14	7	4	3	+9	25
4	Sheffield Weds	14	7	3	4	+8	24
5	Bristol City	13	6	5	2	+3	23
6	QPR	13	7	2	4	+0	23
7	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+9	22
8	Swansea	12	6	4	2	+7	22
9	Charlton	14	6	4	4	+5	22
10	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+5	22
11	Birmingham	14	7	1	6	-2	22
12	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
13	Millwall	14	4	6	4	-3	18
14	Derby	14	4	6	4	-4	18
15	Cardiff	12	4	5	3	+0	17
16	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+1	15
17	Blackburn	14	4	3	7	-4	15
18	Luton	14	4	2	8	-4	14
19	Wigan	13	4	2	7	-7	14
20	Huddersfield	14	3	4	7	-5	13
21	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
22	Middlesbrough	14	2	6	6	-6	12
23	Stoke	14	2	2	10	-12	8
24	Barnsley	14	1	5	8	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	Birmingham	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Fulham	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	Millwall	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Cardiff	5	4	1	0	+6	13
7	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+5	13
8	Charlton	7	4	1	2	+5	13
9	Wigan	6	4	1	1	+3	13
10	Derby	7	3	3	1	+3	12
11	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+2	11
12	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+2	11
13	QPR	7	3	2	2	+1	11
14	Hull	8	3	2	3	+0	11
15	Swansea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
16	Nott'm Forest	6	3	1	2	+3	10
17	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+3	9
18	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+1	9
19	Middlesbrough	8	2	3	3	-3	9
20	Luton	6	2	2	2	+0	8
21	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-2	8
22	Reading	6	2	0	4	-4	6
23	Barnsley	7	1	3	3	-5	6
24	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+7	14
2	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+4	14
3	Swansea	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
5	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+1	12
6	QPR	6	4	0	2	-1	12
7	Sheffield Weds	7	3	1	3	+4	10
8	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Hull	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
12	Brentford	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Luton	8	2	0	6	-4	6
14	Blackburn	7	2	0	5	-5	6
15	Derby	7	1	3	3	-7	6
16	Birmingham	7	2	0	5	-7	6
17	Preston	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-3	5
19	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	-6	4
20	Millwall	7	0	4	3	-7	4
21	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-7	4
22	Middlesbrough	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Barnsley	7	0	2	5	-10	2
24	Wigan	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.