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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 57%

70%

43%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

67%

30%

Both score Ø 52%

63%

40%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

24 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	24	4	3	+45	76
2	Benfica	30	24	3	3	+61	75
3	Sp Lisbon	30	21	4	5	+31	67
4	Sp Braga	30	20	4	6	+23	64
5	Moreirense	30	15	4	11	-1	49
6	Guimaraes	30	13	6	11	+8	45
7	Belenenses	30	9	13	8	+2	40
8	Rio Ave	31	10	9	12	-4	39
9	Santa Clara	31	10	8	13	-1	38
10	Portimonense	31	10	6	15	-10	36
11	Vitoria Setubal	31	7	12	12	-7	33
12	Aves	30	9	6	15	-11	33
13	Maritimo	30	10	3	17	-19	33
14	Boavista	30	9	5	16	-14	32
15	Tondela	30	8	7	15	-13	31
16	Chaves	30	7	7	16	-22	28
17	Nacional	30	7	6	17	-30	27
18	Feirense	31	2	9	20	-38	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	13	1	1	+23	40
2	Porto	15	13	0	2	+27	39
3	Benfica	15	12	2	1	+39	38
4	Sp Braga	15	12	1	2	+18	37
5	Guimaraes	15	9	3	3	+11	30
6	Moreirense	15	8	3	4	+2	27
7	Portimonense	16	7	4	5	+4	25
8	Boavista	15	8	1	6	+3	25
9	Rio Ave	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	Tondela	15	6	3	6	-3	21
11	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	+3	20
12	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-2	19
14	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	6	5	+0	18
15	Nacional	16	5	3	8	-6	18
16	Aves	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Chaves	15	3	6	6	-5	15
18	Feirense	15	1	5	9	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+18	37
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+8	27
4	Sp Braga	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Moreirense	15	7	1	7	-3	22
6	Belenenses	15	4	8	3	-1	20
7	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	+1	19
8	Rio Ave	15	5	3	7	-3	18
9	Aves	15	5	3	7	-6	18
10	Guimaraes	15	4	3	8	-3	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	6	7	-7	15
12	Chaves	15	4	1	10	-17	13
13	Maritimo	16	4	1	11	-17	13
14	Portimonense	15	3	2	10	-14	11
15	Tondela	15	2	4	9	-10	10
16	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-24	9
17	Boavista	15	1	4	10	-17	7
18	Feirense	16	1	4	11	-25	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.