Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
27 | 21 | 3 | 3 | +39 | 66 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
26 | 20 | 3 | 3 | +49 | 63 |
| 3 |
Sp Lisbon
|
27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | +25 | 58 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | +19 | 58 |
| 5 |
Moreirense
|
27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 45 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 |
Belenenses
|
26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | +6 | 38 |
| 8 |
Santa Clara
|
26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -1 | 32 |
| 9 |
Rio Ave
|
26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 32 |
| 10 |
Portimonense
|
27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 11 |
Maritimo
|
26 | 8 | 3 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 |
Aves
|
26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 |
Boavista
|
26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -14 | 26 |
| 14 |
Nacional
|
26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -27 | 26 |
| 15 |
Vitoria Setubal
|
26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 |
Tondela
|
26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -11 | 25 |
| 17 |
Chaves
|
27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -19 | 24 |
| 18 |
Feirense
|
26 | 2 | 9 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Coach: João Henriques
Coach: Luís Castro
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Sp Lisbon
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
Aves
Chaves
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
Nacional
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Hugo Miguel · 125 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.