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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Guimaraes

S U S T T

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

31%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 6. · Moreirense 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	0	2	+24	42
2	Benfica	17	12	2	3	+20	38
3	Sp Braga	17	11	4	2	+15	37
4	Sp Lisbon	16	11	1	4	+15	34
5	Moreirense	16	9	1	6	-2	28
6	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	+4	25
7	Belenenses	16	6	7	3	+4	25
8	Portimonense	17	7	3	7	-4	24
9	Santa Clara	17	6	3	8	-1	21
10	Rio Ave	16	5	4	7	-3	19
11	Nacional	16	5	4	7	-10	19
12	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-3	18
13	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	3	8	-3	18
14	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Maritimo	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Feirense	17	2	7	8	-13	13
17	Aves	17	3	3	11	-13	12
18	Chaves	16	2	3	11	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Porto	9	8	0	1	+17	24
3	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+15	24
4	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Portimonense	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+3	16
7	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Belenenses	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+2	14
10	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Boavista	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-5	10
15	Aves	9	2	3	4	+0	9
16	Feirense	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Santa Clara	9	2	1	6	-5	7
18	Chaves	7	1	2	4	-2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+8	19
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+7	18
3	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
4	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+0	12
5	Moreirense	8	4	0	4	-5	12
6	Belenenses	8	2	5	1	+1	11
7	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	8	3	1	4	+0	10
9	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-5	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-6	6
13	Portimonense	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-5	5
15	Feirense	9	1	2	6	-12	5
16	Maritimo	8	1	1	6	-8	4
17	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Aves	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.