Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Chaves
Feirense
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 36 |
| 2 |
Sp Braga
|
15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |
Sp Lisbon
|
14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +15 | 31 |
| 5 |
Guimaraes
|
15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |
Moreirense
|
15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 25 |
| 7 |
Portimonense
|
15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 23 |
| 8 |
Belenenses
|
14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +4 | 22 |
| 9 |
Santa Clara
|
15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 |
Rio Ave
|
15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 |
Nacional
|
15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 |
Vitoria Setubal
|
15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |
Boavista
|
15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 |
Tondela
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 |
Aves
|
14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 |
Maritimo
|
15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 17 |
Feirense
|
14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |
Chaves
|
14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -13 | 7 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Nacional
Chaves
Chaves
Moreirense
Belenenses
Chaves
Chaves
Guimaraes
Sp Lisbon
Chaves
Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.