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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Tondela

T T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

27%

73%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

47%

67%

Both score Ø 64%

60%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

27% Possession 73%

6 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

24 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 14. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	0	2	+22	39
2	Sp Braga	16	11	3	2	+15	36
3	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+18	35
4	Sp Lisbon	15	11	1	3	+16	34
5	Moreirense	16	9	1	6	-2	28
6	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	+4	25
7	Belenenses	16	6	7	3	+4	25
8	Portimonense	16	7	2	7	-4	23
9	Santa Clara	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Rio Ave	16	5	4	7	-3	19
11	Nacional	15	5	4	6	-8	19
12	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	3	8	-3	18
13	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
14	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-4	15
15	Maritimo	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Feirense	16	2	6	8	-13	12
17	Aves	16	3	2	11	-13	11
18	Chaves	16	2	3	11	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+15	24
3	Porto	8	7	0	1	+15	21
4	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Portimonense	8	5	2	1	+6	17
6	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+3	16
7	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Belenenses	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+2	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	1	4	+0	10
11	Boavista	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
13	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-5	10
14	Aves	8	2	2	4	+0	8
15	Feirense	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Santa Clara	8	2	1	5	-3	7
18	Chaves	7	1	2	4	-2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+7	18
2	Benfica	8	5	1	2	+6	16
3	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
4	Moreirense	8	4	0	4	-5	12
5	Belenenses	8	2	5	1	+1	11
6	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	+0	11
7	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	7	3	1	3	+1	10
9	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-3	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-6	6
13	Portimonense	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-5	5
15	Maritimo	8	1	1	6	-8	4
16	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-11	4
17	Feirense	8	1	1	6	-12	4
18	Aves	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.