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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Benfica

S S S T S

2–3

Full-time

Tondela

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 53%

77%

29%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

58%

45%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

73% Possession 27%

25 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

14 Corners 0

0 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Tondela 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	25	4	2	+61	79
2	Benfica	31	24	5	2	+58	77
3	Sp Lisbon	31	23	5	3	+39	74
4	Sp Braga	31	23	2	6	+45	71
5	Rio Ave	31	13	5	13	-4	44
6	Maritimo	31	12	8	11	-10	44
7	Chaves	31	11	8	12	-11	41
8	Guimaraes	32	12	4	16	-13	40
9	Boavista	31	11	5	15	-11	38
10	Tondela	31	9	8	14	-6	35
11	Portimonense	31	9	8	14	-8	35
12	Belenenses	31	8	10	13	-12	34
13	Moreirense	32	8	8	16	-17	32
14	Feirense	32	9	3	20	-15	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	32	6	11	15	-23	29
16	Pacos Ferreira	31	7	8	16	-23	29
17	Aves	31	7	7	17	-18	28
18	Estoril	31	7	5	19	-32	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	15	1	0	+41	46
2	Sp Lisbon	16	14	2	0	+28	44
3	Sp Braga	16	14	0	2	+27	42
4	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+38	40
5	Maritimo	15	9	4	2	+9	31
6	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+12	30
7	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	-1	30
8	Boavista	15	9	2	4	+5	29
9	Belenenses	15	6	5	4	+3	23
10	Portimonense	15	7	2	6	+2	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-3	23
12	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	6	5	-1	21
13	Chaves	16	5	6	5	-2	21
14	Moreirense	16	5	6	5	-2	21
15	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-4	20
16	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-2	18
17	Aves	15	4	3	8	-7	15
18	Estoril	16	4	3	9	-13	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	11	4	1	+20	37
2	Porto	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Sp Lisbon	15	9	3	3	+11	30
4	Sp Braga	15	9	2	4	+18	29
5	Chaves	15	6	2	7	-9	20
6	Tondela	15	4	5	6	-4	17
7	Rio Ave	16	4	2	10	-16	14
8	Aves	16	3	4	9	-11	13
9	Maritimo	16	3	4	9	-19	13
10	Portimonense	16	2	6	8	-10	12
11	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-15	11
12	Belenenses	16	2	5	9	-15	11
13	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-19	11
14	Feirense	16	3	1	12	-11	10
15	Guimaraes	16	3	1	12	-12	10
16	Boavista	16	2	3	11	-16	9
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	1	5	10	-22	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.