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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Lille

T T T U T

3–1

Full-time

Metz

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 20%

21%

18%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 14

9 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 19. · Metz 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	29	3	2	+81	90
2	Lyon	35	21	9	5	+41	72
3	Monaco	34	21	7	6	+35	70
4	Marseille	34	20	9	5	+31	69
5	St Etienne	35	14	10	11	-5	52
6	Nice	34	14	8	12	+0	50
7	Rennes	34	13	9	12	+2	48
8	Montpellier	35	10	16	9	+1	46
9	Nantes	35	12	10	13	-6	46
10	Guingamp	34	12	9	13	-8	45
11	Bordeaux	34	12	7	15	-5	43
12	Dijon	34	11	9	14	-18	42
13	Amiens	34	11	7	16	-6	40
14	Angers	34	8	13	13	-8	37
15	Caen	34	10	7	17	-19	37
16	Toulouse	34	8	10	16	-13	34
17	Strasbourg	34	8	10	16	-22	34
18	Troyes	34	8	5	21	-23	29
19	Lille	34	7	8	19	-25	29
20	Metz	34	6	8	20	-33	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	17	0	0	+57	51
2	Monaco	17	14	2	1	+29	44
3	Marseille	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Lyon	17	10	5	2	+16	35
5	Guingamp	18	8	6	4	+6	30
6	Dijon	17	9	3	5	+4	30
7	Nice	18	9	3	6	+3	30
8	St Etienne	17	7	7	3	+2	28
9	Amiens	17	7	4	6	+5	25
10	Bordeaux	17	7	4	6	+0	25
11	Caen	17	7	4	6	-1	25
12	Nantes	17	7	4	6	-1	25
13	Toulouse	17	6	5	6	+2	23
14	Montpellier	18	5	8	5	+1	23
15	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	-1	23
16	Angers	17	5	6	6	-3	21
17	Rennes	16	6	3	7	-3	21
18	Troyes	17	6	3	8	-4	21
19	Lille	17	4	6	7	-6	18
20	Metz	17	3	4	10	-16	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	12	3	2	+24	39
2	Lyon	18	11	4	3	+25	37
3	Marseille	17	10	4	3	+8	34
4	Rennes	18	7	6	5	+5	27
5	Monaco	17	7	5	5	+6	26
6	St Etienne	18	7	3	8	-7	24
7	Montpellier	17	5	8	4	+0	23
8	Nantes	18	5	6	7	-5	21
9	Nice	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Bordeaux	17	5	3	9	-5	18
11	Angers	17	3	7	7	-5	16
12	Amiens	17	4	3	10	-11	15
13	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
14	Metz	17	3	4	10	-17	13
15	Caen	17	3	3	11	-18	12
16	Dijon	17	2	6	9	-22	12
17	Toulouse	17	2	5	10	-15	11
18	Lille	17	3	2	12	-19	11
19	Strasbourg	17	2	5	10	-21	11
20	Troyes	17	2	2	13	-19	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.